When to expect «low-Shahed» and «high-Shahed» days: Journalist on Russia’s drone stockpiles
According to a military journalist, Ukraine is unlikely to see days without Shahed drone attacks — or such days will be extremely rare, just a few per year.
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Russia is currently producing about 170 Shahed drones per day, said military analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov in a post on Telegram.
In his view, based on this production rate, Russia likely won’t be able to launch 500, 800, or 1,000 drones per day consistently.
«They have about 3,500 units in stock. But I don’t think they’ll fully deplete their reserves. As I’ve said before, there will be „low-Shahed“ days (80–100 drones launched) and „high-Shahed“ days (250+ drones launched),» the expert suggests.
Based on his rough estimates, Ukraine can expect 1–2 days per week with a large or very large number of Shaheds, and 5–6 days with fewer.
Completely drone-free days will be very rare — a few times per year at most, or possibly none at all.
Myroshnykov also notes that Russia is currently building several new Shahed production facilities in Alabuga, which could increase daily output to around 300 drones per day.
«Even if North Korea starts producing Shaheds, it won’t happen quickly. But one advantage for the enemy is that North Korean engines from China will be supplied directly. Currently, Russia relies on Iranian-made engine copies, the production of which has recently suffered major setbacks,» the analyst concluded.