Geert Wilders will need to engage in negotiations to attain political power.
The right-wing "Party for Freedom" (PVV) in the Netherlands, which is led by the controversial Geert Wilders, who is often called the "European Trump," has won the parliamentary elections. Wilders is known for his provocative language, and he and his party have voted against providing aid to Ukraine. This raises concerns about the future of military support and the fate of Ukrainian refugees.
TSN.ua with Dutch political experts to explore the potential impact of Wilders' victory on Ukrainians. We considered whether his win would lead to any setbacks for Ukraine would follow in the footsteps of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in his approach towards Ukraine.
PVVs are rushing to power, but it is still far away
The House of Representatives consists of 150 deputies representing 15 different parties following the recent elections. The PVV emerged victorious, having secured the most seats - 37 in the newly assembled second chamber. However, this is not sufficient to establish a majority. To attain power, Wilders will have to form a coalition of at least 76 MPs. This means he will have to negotiate with his direct competitors, despite having criticized them harshly during his campaign. In general, the parliament's power distribution will look as follows.
Recently, Wilders openly stated that he proposes to unite to create a majority with the third-place VVD party (ed. the party of current Prime Minister Rutte, which led by Dylan Yesilgoz-Zegherius) and the newly formed center-right NSC party, which came in fourth.
Sitting down at the negotiating table, the PVV will need to moderate its rhetoric and approaches, according to Niels van Willigen, a political expert and associate professor of international relations at Leiden University.
"The PVV will have to tone down its rhetoric. He started doing so during the election campaign, which explains Wilders’ victory: a significant number of voters suddenly regarded the PVV as more moderate and therefore acceptable. After his electoral victory, Wilders continued to reach out to other parties and stated that his longstanding (and unconstitutional) anti-Islam positions will be ‘frozen’ for ‘the time being’. We cannot know what will happen in the future, but so far it seems that Wilders is willing to support more moderate policies to be able to govern. If Wilders continues with this strategy, I think there is a large chance that he will be able to form a government," van Willigen said in a commentary for TSN.ua.
The leader of the VVD, Dylan Jeschilgoz-Zegerius, ruled out joining a potential coalition dominated by Wilders but expressed the possibility of offering “support from the outside”. The NSC party, led by Peter Omzigt, remains cautious, citing political obstacles and disagreement over support for Ukraine.
The Netherlands has been actively discussing another option in the media, which involves forming an "anti-Wilders" coalition to leave Wilders "out of the game." However, this way would make unification talks even more challenging as the center-right would have to negotiate with the center-left, which has differing views on the Netherlands' migration and economic policies.
What will happen with the aid to Ukraine?
Earlier, the Netherlands announced its readiness to provide up to 42 F-16 aircraft, and in November announced a €2 billion military aid package. The funds are to be used to supply ammunition and maintain equipment and weapons. The country is still one of Ukraine's key donors and allies in the fight against Russian invaders, and political experts believe that there will be no significant changes shortly, as decisions have already been made.
"Prime Minister Rutte has already promised another 2 billion euros to support Ukraine in 2024. It is unlikely that any government (even with PVV membership) will abandon this promise," Dutch political analyst Hans Overslot said in a comment to TSN.ua.
However, potential challenges may arise in future arms deliveries to Ukraine, as the PVV expresses a desire to halt weapon shipments, arguing that "weapons should be reserved for the Dutch armed forces. "Van Willigen suggests a compromise is likely, with potential reductions in arms supply.
"Wilders argued that the F16s are offensive weapons and risk involving The Netherlands into the war. However, there is broad support for arms deliveries in parliament, also among the potential coalition partners (NSC, BBB, VVD) of the PVV. Given the likeliness that Wilders will prioritize his domestic political agenda, it is unlikely that arms deliveries will be stopped because of Wilders’ position on this. It is possible that a compromise is made and that the Netherlands will deliver less arms, but I don’t think material support will be canceled completely when Wilders is in the government,” van Willigen said.
During the election campaign, the PVV party didn't focus much on its stance regarding Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine. This was a strategic move as the latest poll results in the Netherlands suggest that 58% of respondents were willing to support Ukraine until their armed forces reached 1991 borders. Emphasizing this topic could take away some of Wilders' electorate, as public sentiment is at odds with his position.
The leader of the PVV political party has been involved in a series of controversial incidents. Specifically, the leader has been criticized for expressing negative opinions towards NATO and for leaving the meeting room during a speech given by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"It is true that the PVV has a favorable attitude towards Russia. His party voted against sanctions against Russia and against arms deliveries for Ukraine. He also refused to attend the parliamentary meeting in which president Zelensky held his speech," Van Willigen comments.
According to expert, the PVV leader has politically chosen the side of Ukraine in the war. He also strongly condemned the Russian invasion, although he accused NATO of "gaffes" that, in his opinion, could have led to the invasion: "He was very clear that whatever mistakes have been made by NATO, it cannot legitimate the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Therefore, Wilders is favorable toward Russia, but not completely unfavorable toward Ukraine."
Political experts agree that Ukraine's support for a potential Wilders government will not be as strong as it is now under Mark Rutte. They say that "all parties will have to make compromises".
Should Ukrainian refugees pack their bags?
For nearly two years after a full-scale invasion, over 100,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in the Netherlands. As reported by NOS, in the autumn of 2023, the number of refugees began to increase significantly. More and more Ukrainians have been arriving from other European countries, including Poland, causing the occupancy rate of emergency shelters to reach 99.3%.
One of Geert Wilders' main theses during the election campaign was "stopping the flow of refugees into the country." For the most part, this did not apply to Ukrainians, as the problem with migrants in the Netherlands arose long before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Associate Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, Niels van Willigen, pointed out that Geert Wilders won the election partially due to his anti-immigration views. However, the political party usually focuses on targeting immigrants who have an Islamic background. It's important to note that Ukrainians who are already living in the Netherlands need not worry.
"Also, even though Wilders (and his potential coalition partners) want to reduce immigration, any policy change will be constrained by international treaties and EU policies. The potential coalition partners are probably not willing to go as far as Wilders in terms of anti-immigration policies. All in all, I expect a tougher line on immigration, but it will not be particularly targeted against the Ukrainian community in The Netherlands," van Willigen said.
It is likely that in the coming years, it will become increasingly challenging for individuals who plan to relocate to the Netherlands. The government may implement stricter anti-immigration policies.
"Perhaps it becomes more difficult or impossible for new Ukrainian refugees to come to the Netherlands, but it is unlikely that those who are already here will be forced to return," adds van Willigen.
According to the PVV leader, a coalition in the Netherlands could be formed in three weeks if they sat down with him at the negotiating table. However, both the VVD and NSC parties are reluctant to negotiate with Wilders, openly stating their unwillingness to ally with the winning party. The party leaders have cited significant differences in their approaches to domestic and foreign policy, as well as the formation of the future government. While experts predict that "seat bidding" is currently taking place with an unpredictable conclusion.