Putin’s «Plan B» to avoid mobilization: Expert reveals Kremlin’s alternatives

While the risk of declaring mobilization in Russia persists, it remains one of the Kremlin’s least preferred options.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies «Strategy XXI, ” outlined alternative approaches to bolstering Russia’s military resources in an interview with Glavred.

Lakiychuk notes that the Kremlin could resort to mobilization if deemed necessary, but two other scenarios are also under consideration:

Seizing control of Lukashenko’s army

«Training exercises in Belarus have concluded, providing Russia with approximately 40,000 trained fighters. As long as a Russian contingent remains in the country, there’s a possibility of sidelining Lukashenko to serve Moscow’s interests. While this scenario is unlikely, it’s something Moscow has long desired, ” Lakiychuk says.

Deploying North Korean troops

The expert adds that Putin could theoretically rely on North Korean soldiers, but it remains unclear whether the Kremlin will secure a new batch of troops from Pyongyang, as payment disputes linger. «It’s said that Putin shortchanged them, so it’s uncertain whether the Kremlin will receive another contingent of North Korean soldiers from Kim, ” he remarked.

What about mobilization in Russia?

Military expert Oleksiy Hetman reveals that in the first half of 2025, Russia mobilized around 150,000 people, barely offsetting monthly frontline losses. At the same time, Russia is planning an autumn offensive on three fronts—Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia—necessitating troop redeployments.

With fewer volunteers signing contracts, the Kremlin is likely to gradually increase monthly conscription to 50,000–60,000 people, focusing on smaller towns and remote regions to avoid protests in major cities.

«Conscripts won’t be sent to the front immediately, but they may be pressured to sign contracts, ” Hetman says.