What will force Putin to stop: Portnikov explains how to accelerate a ceasefire

Lowering the price of Russian oil could create conditions for the Russian Federation to agree to a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front.

This was stated by journalist Vitaliy Portnikov on 5 Kanal.

“I believe, and here I completely agree with President Trump, that a reduction in oil prices, if it truly happens over the long term, could, in a few years, create conditions for the Russian Federation to agree to a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front,” he said.

According to Portnikov, under such conditions, the Russian Federation would lack real funds to finance not only social stability but also the war itself.

“In such a situation, conditions could emerge for the Russian Federation to genuinely abandon its so-called maximalist goals in the Russian-Ukrainian war. There simply won’t be money to assemble missiles, buy shells, or pay the massive army of mercenaries that Putin has gathered,” he added.

A reduction in Russian oil prices must actually occur, not remain a mere forecast.

“I don’t quite understand where this talk about OPEC countries agreeing to increase production comes from, when there were discussions that they would maintain current levels—there’s a debate there,” he said.

At the same time, a significant drop in oil prices is disadvantageous not only to Russia but also to OPEC countries themselves, Portnikov noted.

“They might do this to "discipline" the West but could quickly shift to reducing production to preserve their own profits. However, if the price truly falls and — importantly — is not accompanied by a collapse of the global economy, which Donald Trump’s actions could trigger, then conditions could indeed emerge, perhaps in 2026–2027, for a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front. There could also be other scenarios,” he suggested.