War could halt for a day or a decade: Analyst’s forecast on the talks

As long as parts of Ukrainian territory remain under occupation, any agreements will be temporary measures rather than a definitive end to the conflict, political analyst Igar Tyshkevich of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future said on Kyiv24.

The analyst says that the public often confuses peace talks with the actual end of the war. At present, the discussions are about freezing hostilities, which could last for an indefinite period, rather than achieving a final peace settlement.

He believes that true peace requires the signing of an agreement that definitively resolves the conflict. However, under current circumstances, with a significant part of Ukraine occupied by Russia, such a scenario is possible only under a condition unacceptable to Kyiv.

“What is peace? It is a peace deal that ends a war or conflict. If territories remain occupied, can we truly declare an end? The only option would be to accept them as Russian territory. To give them up,” Tyshkevich said.

He added that such an outcome is extremely unlikely.

Tyshkevich stresses that even from the Russian perspective, this is about freezing the conflict rather than resolving it. A true end would require the opponent to legally acknowledge the occupied territories as the aggressor’s property.

“You occupy part of the territory and declare it yours. The conflict only truly ends when the other side, your opponent, recognizes that these territories belong to you. If that doesn’t happen, it’s not an end — it’s a pause,” the expert said.

Given this, any agreements that might be reached in the near future should be viewed solely as a temporary halt to the active phase of the war.

“Therefore, at present, if we speak in terms of definitions, this is a temporary freezing of the war. It could last for several months, several years, several decades, or even less than a single day,” Igar Tyshkevich concluded.