Russian drone attacks grow more sophisticated: Analyst explains how to counter them

In September, Russia deployed more than 800 drones simultaneously. Russian drone operations are becoming increasingly complex but also reveal new vulnerabilities.

Analyst Oleksiy Yizhak of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies shared his assessment with Espreso.

According to him, Russia is rapidly adapting to the conditions of the war, creating military structures to manage drones—analogous to battalions and squadrons. This makes their raids different from traditional battles. At the same time, he said Ukraine must factor in Russia’s production rates, its dependence on imports, and weak points in its operations.

Factors limiting Russian drone production

Yizhak noted that production of all types of Russian drones depends on several key factors beyond money and manpower:

- Import of components. Geranium and Gerbera drones require imported engines or engine parts. Although “grey” imports and simplified technologies help Russia maintain high production rates, this leaves them dependent on logistics.

- Production growth. Russia will try to expand production of both long-range and tactical drones. However, the analyst said it lacks the resources for a “tsunami” of output that could overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. A significant increase of several dozen percent in the near term, however, is likely.

Vulnerabilities and how to contain them

The expert stresses the need to limit Russia’s drone potential before it is used. He identified three main vulnerabilities:

- Production chains. Both centralized and decentralized drone manufacturing are exposed to disruption.

- Critical imports. Sanctions and administrative measures may not harm the economies of supplier countries but can sharply slow Russia’s drone production.

- Command structures. Command posts, planning and control centers, communication systems, logistics, and launch sites are all weak points.

“All command and control structures for drone operations in Russia are not yet fully formed. But they already exist de facto, and their vulnerable elements are visible: planning and control centers, communication systems, supply logistics, and launch sites. We must do everything possible to reduce Russia’s drone potential before it reaches the battlefield,” the expert concludes.