Even unlimited Patriots won’t save Ukraine: Experts explain the problem

Ukraine is actively using American air defense systems to counter Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles. However, even without a shortage of interceptors, these systems cannot guarantee complete protection. Recent combat examples in the Middle East confirm this.

This is reported in a Defense Express article.

Patriot systems remain one of the key tools for countering ballistic threats both in Ukraine and globally. During recent U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran, hundreds of ballistic missile launches were recorded, providing a serious test for missile defense.

In Ukraine, Patriot systems are essentially the main tool for intercepting these kinds of threats. However, because of a limited number of interceptor missiles, sometimes only a single missile is fired at a target, while standard tactics call for multiple launches. This raises the risk of breaches even in heavily defended areas.

At first glance, this issue could be addressed by increasing production of modern PAC-3 MSE missiles or producing them under licence. This would certainly improve defensive effectiveness. Still, even with full Patriot stockpiles, interception is not guaranteed.

Online footage has shown a ballistic missile being intercepted during an attack on a military base in Qatar. Several interceptors are launched in succession, but none hit the target. Ultimately, the missile reaches the site.

Although such incidents are rare, they illustrate a fundamental aspect of any air defense system: the chance of a successful interception is never 100%. Even the most advanced missiles can fail due to complex flight paths, manoeuvres, or decoys.

Russian missiles, notably the Iskander, present particular challenges as they are capable of manoeuvring during the terminal phase and using countermeasures to evade interception. This makes them harder targets than many other ballistic missiles.

Experts stress that an effective defense of cities and critical infrastructure requires a multi-layered missile defense system, incorporating different types of systems — from medium-range to strategic missile defenses.

Meanwhile, obtaining THAAD or Arrow systems, which supplement Patriots in some countries, remains a difficult issue for Ukraine because of their scarcity and high cost.