Chernihiv offensive could pose real threat: Expert outlines Putin’s army goals
Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko exposed Russia’s plan for «buffer zones, ” highlighting the surge in attacks and the formation of new enemy divisions.
Russia intensifies shelling in Chernihiv region
Russia is actively setting the stage for a potential push toward Chernihiv, shown by air strikes and statements from Russian propagandists. TSN.ua explored how real this threat is and what strategic goals the Kremlin is chasing.
Retired Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko analyzed the enemy’s moves, stressing that for two years Russia has operated under two major strategic concepts.
Two Russian strategies: conquest and «buffer zones»
Ihor Romanenko points out that for the past two years, Russia has been guided by two strategic concepts. The first deals with illegal constitutional changes aimed at taking control of four Ukrainian regions. The second focuses on forming buffer and sanitary zones.
«Russia started putting its concept into action two years ago, beginning with Kharkiv and Sumy regions. They launched operations in Kharkiv first, then turned to Sumy after we disrupted their plans by conducting the Kursk operation ahead of time. Two years ago, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence revealed both Russian plans — for seizing new territories and for creating sanitary and buffer zones, ” Romanenko explains.
Later, Putin and his team reported that Chernihiv region was also under consideration within the buffer zone plan.
Chernihiv under fire: Why air strikes intensified
«In the last month or two, Russia has stepped up air strikes across Chernihiv region. They are hitting energy infrastructure, military sites, and other targets. Chernihiv and nearby cities are under pressure, and evacuations are ongoing from border areas. The strikes are happening in full, even though Russia knows defensive lines have been set up there, ” Romanenko explains.
Chernihiv and Kyiv at risk: Russia’s division build-up
The lieutenant general notes that opening a new northern front would make strategic sense for Russia. Still, until now, the enemy did not have sufficient forces or resources to attempt it.
«Talks of a potential offensive have been going on for a while, with Kyiv also mentioned, echoing the early phase of the war when Russian troops advanced from Belarus. At present, such an attack on Kyiv is considered less likely. This year, Russia aimed to form 12 new divisions. General Syrskyi confirms that four divisions have already been created, and the buildup continues. Remember, a division includes not just personnel but also weapons, vehicles, and ammunition. That’s why a strike on Chernihiv could represent a real and immediate threat, ” the military expert explains.
Defensive lines and fortifications have been actively built in Chernihiv region, but the expert emphasizes that similar efforts were underway in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces are advancing quickly.
«That’s why Putin’s plan represents a real threat. The key question is when and how soon Russia will amass the troops needed to carry out such moves, ” Romanenko concludes.