Intelligence identifies main threat to Putin’s regime

Russia is concerned that the mass return of frontline troops and former prisoners could spark a crime wave and unsettle the population. Experts are already drawing parallels to the 1990s, when Afghan war veterans formed gangs and mafia groups.

This was reported by the press service of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.

“Russian authorities acknowledge that demobilizing participants in the war against Ukraine poses serious internal risks. Kremlin assessments suggest that veterans could catalyze criminal and political destabilization capable of shaking the system built around personal loyalty to Putin,” the statement reads.

The report says that the challenge of reintegrating frontline veterans into civilian life in Russia extends beyond psychological trauma from combat or the criminal backgrounds of many troops. A sharp contrast between high frontline payments and the realities of peacetime plays a significant role. Salaries and bonuses for service members in combat zones often exceed the national average income several times over. Returning to cities with low wages and an economy battered by sanctions and crises, veterans find themselves in a situation that could become a source of social tension and instability.

Intelligence sources indicate that the issue is exacerbated by the large number of convicts involved in the war. According to Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service, between 120,000 and 180,000 prisoners were sent to the front. A substantial portion have already returned to Russian cities, where a noticeable rise in serious crimes involving military-status individuals has been observed. The combination of psychological stress, criminal experience, and economic hardships creates a potentially explosive social context reminiscent of the 1990s, when Afghan war veterans established gangs and mafia organizations.

Since 2023, at least 989 cases have reached military courts under articles related to murders and intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm resulting in death. The number of convictions for such crimes shows a sharp increase: 38 in 2022, 266 in 2023, 346 in 2024, and 377 new cases in the first nine months of 2025 alone.

In response to these challenges, authorities are intensifying repressive measures. The Federal Penitentiary Service has gained expanded powers to use special equipment against inmates—from batons and stun guns to service dogs and water cannons. Officially, this is justified as ensuring staff safety, but in practice, such steps aim to maintain control over increasingly aggressive groups of former prisoners and soldiers.

The return from the front of individuals accustomed to violence and impunity poses a high risk to the Kremlin’s internal stability. While these veterans initially served as regime pillars, they could eventually become a force capable of sparking internal destabilization and potentially pushing Russia toward crisis.