Russian "Shaheds" enter Belarus: what could be behind the drones' "wandering"

Military expert Pavlo Narozhny told this RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, the theories about the possible reasons border on "conspiracy theories." Nevertheless, there are a few plausible scenarios.

"First, it could be for data collection. The "Shahed" is quite large and can carry a significant load - up to 50 kg. This could include a radar. Thus, the drone could gather some data, fly to Belarus, where the data is then retrieved," Narozhny suggests.

The second possible scenario is to provoke or test the response of Ukrainian air defense by downing the UAV.

"For example, they might be observing whether our radar will work and then target that radar. The Russians have the anti-radar missile X-31P," the expert explains.

The third scenario involves the operation of Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW), which either jams the UAV's GPS signal or transmits fake signals, causing the drone to fly in an unclear direction, Narozhny explains.

The fourth scenario, in his opinion, might be an attempt by Russia to provoke Belarus.

"Imagine a "Shahed" targets the Mozyr Oil Refinery or lands on its territory, causing a fire. After this, Russia or Belarus could blame Ukraine, claiming it was an "attack by a Ukrainian drone." This could serve as a casus belli (justification for war) for Belarus," the expert notes.

Narozhny emphasizes that there is currently no public confirmation of any of these scenarios. It is only possible to speculate on the reasons behind these incidents.

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