Would Putin Attempt Another Offensive from Belarus: Experts Answers the Question
According to Ihor Tyshkevych, Russia attempts to create the “hazard zone” around Belarus.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to maintain tension at the border between Ukraine and Belarus in order to diver the AFU’s reserves. However, currently there are no evidences that another Russian offensive operation from Belarus is being prepared, as Ihor Tyshkevyck, the expert from the Ukrainian Institute of Future, said in his interview for TSN’s YouTube channel.
The expert also explained what signs may indicate ongoing preparation for Russian offensive campaign from Belarus. According to him, for this purpose, Putin needs Lukashenko’s political consent, well-developed logistics and military deployment.
"If we witness arrival of the first relatively big convoys, we will have around 3-4 more weeks before this large grouping is deployed. Moreover, a group of 20-25 thousand men that attacked Kyiv in spring will be irrelevant in the given situation", he noted.
According to Tyshkevych, Russia has limited capability to redeploy its troops:
"It took around 1,5 months for Russia to deploy the so-called Army Corps III of around 60 thousand men at the various sections of the border. They have some limitation primarily related to the Russian railway system. One thing is to deploy 20-25 thousand men, and a totally different thing is to deploy a huge grouping".
The expert believes that Belarus “will conduct more large-scare military exercises in order to bind and lock Ukrainian reserves”.
"A day before yesterday, they started to draft reservists to one of their military units in Machulishchi. I guess it’s not yet over. They will deploy 2-3 more military units, maybe, a motor rifle brigade, so Ukraine has no other choice but to keep its reserves close to the border”, he said.
According to Tyshkevych, now for Russia is very important to create the “hazard area” around Belarus to divert and lock Ukraine’s additional military reserves.
"These troops are deployed near Lutsk, not near Lyman. It’s not active warfare, but it’s a manipulation to interfere with more active military operations by Ukraine. Since Ukraine is concentrating its resources for counteroffensive operation, every month of any brigade’s idle waiting near Lutsk is minus one liberated town for Ukraine”, he summarized.
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