How Starlink shutdown for Russians could change course of fighting — expert explains

Unofficial use of Starlink satellite terminals by Russian occupying forces is facing major disruptions, creating new challenges and forcing changes in tactics both in rear areas and on the front line.

This was explained by Viktor Taran, a veteran of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Head of the UAV Operator Training Center «Kruk, ” in a comment to Telegraf.

According to the expert, a complete halt to attacks on the deep rear should not be expected. The main threat to Ukrainian infrastructure, including thermal power plants, continues to come from ballistic missiles and strategic aviation, whose operations are largely independent of Starlink terminals.

The situation with strike drones, however, is expected to change significantly.

«This will affect accuracy, as it will no longer be possible to guide „Shaheds“ to their targets using Starlink, ” Viktor Taran said.

He explained that Russians had recently used «Shaheds» equipped with Starlink terminals for precision strikes on civilian logistics, including trains.

This threat — of accusations of aiding terrorism and potential stock losses — likely led Elon Musk to take steps to block the network for the aggressor.

Could Starlink shutdown give Ukrainian Forces an advantage on the frontline?

The most significant impact on the enemy’s communications system will be felt directly on the frontline. Reliable internet is key in modern warfare for operational control and real-time drone video feeds.

Viktor Taran says the situation is now similar to the start of the full-scale invasion. Ukrainian forces have stable communications, UAV streams from all types of drones, and fast data transfer to command posts, while Russian forces are losing their «eyes» and operational efficiency.

«Russian troops are almost blind — they cannot see what is happening on the battlefield, making their attacks less effective and increasing their losses, ” the veteran says.

Will «meat grinder» assaults continue?

Despite technical problems, the enemy is unlikely to abandon offensive operations. The analyst predicts that the Russians will be able to establish alternative voice communication channels within a few weeks, but video streaming will remain a problem for them.

Under these circumstances, Russian command will likely continue sending assault groups «to the slaughter.»

«Effectiveness will decrease, casualties on their side will increase, while on the Ukrainian side they will decrease. We will inflict damage, and they cannot transmit data rapidly through Starlink, ” Viktor Taran concluded.

Thus, technological edge again favors Ukraine, allowing the Defense Forces to operate faster and more efficiently than the enemy.