No negotiations before summer: Political analyst on what awaits Ukraine

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin plans to significantly strengthen his position through the summer campaign on the front lines and is thus sabotaging peace talks.

This opinion was expressed by Ukrainian political analyst Serhiy Taran, as reported by «Espreso».

The expert believes that the anticipation of summer is a key factor hindering Trump’s efforts to end the war.

«Putin plans to significantly improve his position during the summer. Whether he succeeds is a question for military experts, but I believe he won’t, considering that the mobilization potential of the Russian army hasn’t changed significantly. I think Putin is probably being told that the Russian army is on the verge of breaking through the Ukrainian front. That’s why he’s pinning his hopes on summer, when conditions for an offensive are most favorable, ” said Serhiy Taran.

According to him, Putin is not even hiding his intention to fully capture the four regions now claimed by the Russian constitution — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. If Russia can gain even more—such as turning parts of Sumy region into a buffer zone — they are counting on that as well.

However, the analyst believes that by autumn, Putin will be forced to engage in talks with Trump.

«The more interesting question is what happens next, regardless of the outcome of the offensive campaign. What will follow is that Putin will ultimately have to talk with the U.S. The Kremlin maintains soft rhetoric toward Trump, and that suggests they anticipate serious negotiations about freezing the war. Putin criticizes European politicians and the Ukrainian leader harshly, but he always uses cautious language when speaking about Trump. In Russia, they’re already talking about negotiations and compromises, because they understand that the U.S. has leverage. And in my view, that leverage lies in the Republican faction’s continued pressure on Russia, ” the analyst said.

Taran also notes that Trump possesses a painful sanctions tool to pressure Russia, especially given that global oil prices are not expected to be high. In his opinion, if oil prices continue to fall, it will hurt Russia more than all of Biden’s previous sanctions combined.

«All of this, following the end of the summer campaign, will force Putin to consider serious negotiations — whether based on current conditions or adjusted ones. But that will come after summer. And summer will be difficult, although we are confident that Russia will not achieve anything significant enough to change the situation in Ukraine, ” Taran concluded.