Russia’s second offensive wave in 2025: Expert identifies key threats and critical frontline

Russia began the second wave of its 2025 assault, pushing to reach the Dnipro and widen its land corridor. The expert stated that the most dangerous situation at present is unfolding in the Huliaipole sector.

Speaking to 24 Kanal, retired colonel and military expert Roman Svitan provided his assessment.

According to the expert, Russian forces are carrying out Putin’s political task — to seize five regions incorporated into Russia’s constitution. To achieve this, they are attempting to expand the land corridor through Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

One possible route, according to Svitan, is an advance toward Zaporizhzhia from the direction of Orikhiv. However, Ukrainian defensive positions in the area have held firm for four years, making progress difficult.

As a result, Russian troops have shifted tactics, pressing from the east toward Huliaipole in an effort to outflank Ukrainian units.

"The threat level in Huliaipole is comparable to that in Pokrovsk," Svitan says.

Russian forces have already reached the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway near Pokrovske village and are attempting to cut it off, which could place Ukrainian troops under partial encirclement.

Battle for Pokrovsk: “No surrender”

The expert stressed that the battle for Pokrovsk is of critical importance. Ukrainian forces continue to repel attacks, though the situation changes by the hour.

“The key task now is to hold the line and prevent Russian troops from crossing the heights of Pokrovsk and advancing toward Pavlohrad and the Dnipro. It is no longer a 200‑meter elevation above sea level, as in Pokrovsk now, but only 50," Svitan explained, outlining the city’s strategic importance.

He added that Russian units are already infiltrating Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, turning them into a “continuous grey zone.”

According to the expert, Ukraine’s forces are pursuing an effective strategy of active defense, avoiding a continuous frontline, unlike in 2022.

“The situation is dangerous, but stopping the Russians is realistic,” he said.

He suggests that Pokrovsk could become “a second Vovchansk,” where Russian troops entered a year and a half ago but remain stalled, suffering heavy losses.

"Pokrovsk should become a place where the Russian army is destroyed in the same way," the expert believes.

Additional Ukrainian reserves are being deployed to the sector, including units near Hryshyne to push Russian forces back beyond the Pavlohrad–Pokrovsk highway. Positive developments are also reported from the directions of Dobropillia and Rodynske, ensuring supply lines to Ukrainian formations in Myrnohrad.

“The Pokrovsk line is holding, and it must not be surrendered under any circumstances, as this would open the way for further occupation of Ukraine,” Svitan concluded.