Three scenarios for ending the war: What could halt hostilities in Ukraine
Former official Georgiy Tuka outlined three possible scenarios for the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine: exhaustion, strategic victory, or a stalemate — what’s closer to reality?
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The aftermath of shelling in Ukraine / © Associated Press / © Associated Press
The war between Russia and Ukraine could end or enter the phase of a frozen conflict only under one of three conditions.
This was stated by Heorhiy Tuka, former head of the Luhansk Military-Civil Administration and ex-Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories and Internally Displaced Persons, in a comment to Glavred.
The first scenario, according to Tuka, is possible if one side becomes completely exhausted to the point of being unable to continue active combat operations, whether defending or attacking.
“During World War II, Germany capitulated while its troops were still on French territory. It simply ran out of resources and could no longer fight,” Tuka recalled.
The second scenario is achieving a strategic goal: for Ukraine, this means liberating occupied territories; for Russia, it means holding or further capturing them. However, Tuka notes that there are currently no signs that either side is close to achieving its objectives.
The third and currently most likely scenario is mutual exhaustion, where neither side gains the upper hand but both gradually lose resources and the ability to wage active warfare.
“The occupiers manage to advance 150–200 meters, but they pay a high price for it. Russia’s economy is not in the best shape, and there are issues with weaponry. But Ukraine is also experiencing significant exhaustion — we feel it every day. Right now, it’s a race to see who gives out first,” Tuka concluded.