Will the war end after August 15? Expert outlines key scenarios
Friday could become a pivotal day in Russia’s mass attacks and its war against Ukraine, an analyst said, assessing possible outcomes and risks.
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Political analyst Bohdanov outlines possible post–August 15 war scenarios / © TSN
Ahead of August 15 — when U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin may meet — and shortly afterward, two main scenarios are possible regarding Russian strikes on Ukraine or, conversely, a temporary lull in air attacks.
Political scientist and strategic communications specialist Yuriy Bohdanov expressed his opinion in a comment for TSN.ua.
«Putin’s strategy is to force Ukraine into unacceptable concessions. I see two options, ” Bohdanov says.
He explained: «First: Putin could limit demonstrative strikes on Kyiv and distant rear cities until August 15. But we still see the border regions suffering as before. I think Putin is now trying to shift the blame for the war not ending onto Ukraine. If he acts rationally, he will not carry out strikes. He will try to persuade Trump.»
On the second scenario, Bohdanov says: «If the talks fail, then massive strikes on rear cities are more than likely. But at present, from Putin’s behavior, it is clear that he is genuinely concerned about secondary sanctions and U.S. pressure on buyers of Russian oil. That is why he is trying to delay these sanctions as much as possible or have them cancelled altogether.»
Bohdanov says strikes could resume if the talks fail.
«In my opinion, Putin will have no desire to end the war until he is clearly losing it — or until he fears that, unless he leaves the war, he faces a serious economic and political crisis, ” the expert says.
He adds: «In other words, when the risks of ending the war are lower for him than continuing it, then there will be real talks and no strikes. Until that point, we must always be ready for attacks, for the war to continue, for Putin to resort to terror.»
How the war might change after August 15
«Over many months, nothing has changed for Putin — he wants to take control of Donetsk region, ” Bohdanov says. „Experts still predict that for Putin it is crucial to capture all of Donbas, and for that he needs to threaten Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. We see that in Sumy region the Russian army has suffered serious setbacks.“
The expert suggests that to improve his negotiating position, Putin will intensify pressure in Donbas.
Summing up, Bohdanov says the only factor that could force Putin into genuine talks is fear of being unable to continue the war.
«This is his main fear, and we must work on it. I very much hope that the U.S. president will announce sanctions either before the meeting or afterward. This will increase pressure on the Russian economy. That alone will prompt Putin to end the war — nothing else will. The war boils down to three key factors: money, money, and more money. Everything else is detail. If Trump threatens Putin and shows a strong position, the meeting could be decisive. If he looks into his eyes and tries to find a friend there — then no. Only a tough stance from Trump can push Putin toward real peace talks. That is key, ” Bohdanov says.