New war in Europe: Expert outlines timeline and scenario for possible Putin attack
U.S. and global attention is currently fixated on the Persian Gulf, creating what Moscow may see as a «window of opportunity.»
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Vladimir Putin / © Associated Press / © Associated Press
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could be laying the groundwork for a fresh military conflict on European soil. Aggression might erupt within the next year, with the West’s focus on other global hotspots providing the Kremlin with favorable conditions, warns Vladimir Gorbach, Executive Director of the Institute for Transformation of Northern Eurasia.
«The timing looks advantageous for several reasons. Both Donald Trump and much of the world are focused on the standoff with Iran in the Persian Gulf. Resources and ammunition are being drained in a war of attrition there, ” Gorbach said.
Moscow could be tempted to stage provocations, counting on a slow or inadequate international response. Yet, the expert cautions, such a move is extremely risky for Russia and no guarantee of success.
Potential timeline for aggression: Spring, summer, or autumn
Gorbach suggests Russian aggression could occur at any point this year, though autumn may offer the best cover for military maneuvers. «For example, in September, actions could be disguised as routine military exercises. Putin still has time to prepare provocations. The ongoing information escalation is likely just the beginning, ” he noted.
Kremlin’s likely approach
The attack scenario does not necessarily mean an immediate large-scale invasion «here and now.» More likely, the Kremlin will act gradually, destabilizing the situation through a series of smaller conflicts.
«These are cascading actions or a sequence of provocations that will gradually shape the information environment and public opinion within Russia about the „necessity“ of such steps. So, it’s not necessarily a „here and now“ scenario, but it is entirely possible within the year, ” Gorbach added.
According to the expert, the domestic information buildup in Russia is a clear indicator that Moscow is preparing its citizens for a potential new conflict, creating the illusion that aggressive actions against Europe are unavoidable.