Will Putin give up Crimea? Expert offers unexpected answer

Despite severe issues with roads, electricity, and water, Russia has no intention of voluntarily leaving Crimea. For the Kremlin, this is not just territory, but a matter of regime survival. Therefore, the occupiers will cling to the Kerch Bridge at all costs, as it has become the main symbol of their political resilience.

Eskender Bariiev, Head of the Board of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center and member of the Presidium of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, outlined the situation to Kyiv24.

Why Putin will not give up Crimea — expert opinion

In Bariiev's view, maintaining control over temporarily occupied Crimea is primarily a matter of personal image for Vladimir Putin and his inner circle. For this reason, Russians will attempt to maintain control over the region as long as they have any resources left to do so.

"As long as the Russian Federation has the capability, they will hold onto Crimea. They will hold on and try to preserve the Kerch Bridge because it is a politically vital issue for them. It is the political image of both Putin himself and his circle," Eskender Bariiev noted.

What is already failing in occupied Crimea

According to the expert, while the Kremlin focuses on political ambitions, the peninsula's infrastructure is failing under the strain. Due to electricity shortages, pumping stations have ground to a halt, leading to critical disruptions in water supply and communications.

The situation on the railway has descended into chaos. Long-distance trains, such as Simferopol–Omsk, Moscow, Sevastopol, and St. Petersburg, now only run as far as Kerch.

"As of this morning, there is already a massive collapse at the Simferopol railway station, where over a thousand people are waiting for buses to transport them, but no buses are available," Bariiev reported.

He also said that the occupying authorities have resorted to radical restrictions. Following a decree by Sergey Aksyonov, the self-proclaimed prime minister of the temporary Russian occupation administration in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the operations of children's recreational facilities — namely sanatoriums, resorts, and summer camps — have been effectively halted. Furthermore, any bookings are banned until September 1, 2026.

Eskender Bariiev emphasizes that no matter how hard Russia tries to entrench itself in Crimea, the peninsula remains Ukrainian. According to the expert, liberating it is only possible by destroying the Russian logistics routes that the occupiers use to maintain their power.

He remains convinced that true peace is only possible after Ukraine fully regains control over all its territories, including Crimea.