A military analyst explained how winter will change the nature of hostilities and where it can get "hot"
Counter-battery duels will continue.
Winter conditions will affect the course of the war / Photo: screenshot from the video
Winter conditions will affect the course of the war in Ukraine and the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces because the condition of the ground will impact the mobility of military vehicles.
This was said by Military analyst, Colonel Petro Chernyk in an exclusive interview with TSN.ua.
"It will be just like last winter. At that time, we were in a zone of so-called strategic fire balance. It wasn't until May when it was disrupted, and we began offensive actions. Keep in mind that all the equipment is heavy: both Soviet, Russian, and Western models. Although the armored vehicles produced by the Soviet Union are lighter. Let's say, on the example of two machines: the BMP-2 weighs around 13.5 tons, and the Bradley, depending on the configuration, starts from 20 tons and can reach 25, and even 30 tons. Does the first vehicle move more easily?.. No. If the ground is really wet, everything will get stuck. Anything over 10 tons, and the ground can't support it," the expert explained.
A similar situation, according to Chernyk, arises with tanks.
"Their tanks weigh between 36-43 tons, depending on the model, while Western tanks start at 65 tons and can go up to 75 tons. Both can move successfully even in winter or rainy weather on relatively solid roads with asphalt or concrete surfaces or compacted soil. What will happen? Counter-battery duels, as they have been happening," the expert explained.
Chernyk noted that in winter, battles for Tokmak might possibly begin.
"Because Tokmak is quite a significant city, which has a huge amount of hard surface inside. But it seems to me that it is absolutely incorrect to resort to frontal assault actions of cities of this type. It's wiser to encircle it, cut off the enemy's logistics, and exhaust them. People fight in wars. People need water, food, and medicine. If you cut off those supplies, sooner or later, they surrender," explained the expert.
Read also: