Deployment of "Oreshnik" in Belarus: NSDC explains Putin's motives

The spectacle with "Oreshnik" in Belarus is another scare tactic, the effectiveness of which Putin has been convinced of by Kiriyenko and Patrushev. For now, it remains a media story. However, even the potential deployment of "Oreshnik" in Belarus does not increase the threat to Ukraine or NATO, primarily because it makes no difference whether it is launched from Kapustin Yar or Belarus.

This was stated by Andriy Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.

"All the talk about reduced flight time is a scare tactic for Western and Ukrainian civilians. For missile defense systems, this factor plays no role, as was the case with the "Kinzhal", which was intercepted by a Patriot system last year for the first time in history. However, deploying the system will require solving a number of technical issues," Kovalenko explained.

The main goal of Russia, according to the NSDC, is to escalate tensions through fear propaganda aimed at the West.

"Deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus failed to have the desired informational effect. "Oreshnik" is being used as a counter-narrative to the West's decision to allow strikes on Russian territory with long-range weaponry. Deploying it in Belarus will be spread purely in terms of information under the narrative of "bringing Oreshnik closer to NATO's borders' to influence public opinion in Europe," Kovalenko noted.

At the same time, he adds, Putin is attempting to conceal that one of the two test launches of "Oreshnik" has already failed.

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