Enemy breakthrough near Dobropillia: Analyst explains cause and warns of collapse risk

The breakthrough of Russian troops near Dobropillia in the Donetsk region occurred due to a combination of a weak defensive sector, effective enemy infiltration tactics, bureaucratic mistakes in the Ukrainian command, a shortage of personnel, and logistical difficulties after key routes were cut.

This opinion was expressed by military analyst Kyrylo Danylchenko.

Breakthrough near Dobropillia — causes and threats

The expert comments on the Russian army's breakthrough near Dobropillia and named its causes.

“As long as the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway is physically cut off, the enemy slipped behind new defensive lines on the shoulders of those retreating, infiltrating small groups into villages, where they then bring in drone operators and pilots,” Danylchenko writes.

He notes that Ukrainian engineering fortifications have improved. However, a large volume of work was undermined by yet another “failure” of one of the brigades from the third wave of wartime units, which, before the catastrophe, reported to command that “everything is fine, difficult but under control.”

“There is a threat both to Dobropillia on the tactical level and operational encirclement of the Sloviansk agglomeration, and again an attempt to threaten Barvinkove — a major railway junction. By pinning down our forces in Pokrovsk, the Russians continue to flank, so the withdrawal from built-up areas occurs under drone attacks and to reduce their losses from frontal assaults,” the analyst describes the situation.

How does the enemy operate?

He stresses that the enemy is doing nothing supernatural. The Russians introduced the 39th Brigade from Sakhalin and a “mixed unit of the 2nd Army” where they managed to break through — fields north of Nikanorivka. This is the junction of two units, and this is not the first time it has happened.

This time the occupiers are not using any tank columns or mechanized assaults — only motorcycles, buggies, infantry, logistics isolation with fiber optics, and artillery detachments.

“They bypass foxholes and observation posts, hover over flanks. They insert many small groups behind the front line where possible — not hesitating to run into Pokrovsk and near Dobropillia, in typical one-way "casualty" missions,” Danylchenko describes enemy actions.

Enemy’s objectives near Dobropillia and what does Trump have to do with it?

The analyst believes the occupiers’ goal is chaos — to deepen the lack of coordination among the assembled “firefighting teams” of Ukraine’s Defense Forces and to attack logistics in the last kilometer.

“Yes, this is the picture before negotiations and losses during infiltration — but they create this picture. Then Trump appears all in white and says the Russians defeated Napoleon and Hitler, and the general who made a mistake near Kyiv, knowing Vladimir’s friend, is already dead (that was notable cringe), and that negotiations are needed. This is Russia,” the expert’s statement says.

Situation is close to collapse due to infantry shortage

Danylchenko also used irony but made it clear that Ukraine lacks infantry in this direction.

“Few people, so the problem is close to collapse here? I don’t know, children 18-24 seem to be going to clubs normally and leaving for studies. Representatives of strategic circles and companies packing sweets are exempted. Women cannot be assigned to communications, radar, or mobile fire groups, and men cannot be moved from there to reinforce the line — society will not understand. Looks logical — where would the infantry shortage come from, I don’t understand?” the analyst writes.

He stresses that Ukraine is fighting a war of survival. One cannot bet on only one branch of the military and seriously plan to hold over 100 km of battle line with a curtain of ground robotic systems and a Chinese constructor — even with the EU industry behind.

“You cannot endlessly say we need millions of drones and everything will work out — it’s time to temper the understandable desire to forge shameful metal and think about security,” the expert urged.

Under Dobropillia — a “firefighting team” of Ukrainian units: the cycle repeats

According to Danylchenko, several Ukrainian units are moving to Dobropillia as a “firefighting team.” He points to a recurring cycle.

“The cycle repeats — many months preparing defense, then Vovchansk or Yunakivka happens, we hastily cover it with whatever we have, starting from police battalions and border guards to combined units from airfield service. Holding the front, we redeploy combat-ready units with strong drone components and well-equipped brigades, stabilize the direction, but problems start again where they were removed,” the analyst explains.

What should Ukraine do?

According to Danylchenko, the Russians will take what they can. They will start pouring everything with concrete, and drones will not move them. The enemy will soon isolate logistics with fiber optics themselves.

“Infantry is needed. Yes, then unpopular decisions lie ahead, but accepting the Russian ultimatum is also unpopular. It is very necessary not to report upwards what they want to hear but to tell the truth — feedback is critically important. To understand that even if a deal happens tomorrow, we will have to hold troops on the line, rotate them, and supply them — nothing will change. Reforms, people, and money are needed. Management and decision-making reform has ripened and overripe,” the expert’s statement says.

He notes there is no catastrophe yet, but time is running out.

“These narrow breakthroughs a couple of kilometers wide, the enemy has already tried to push through more than once. Cutting them off with a catastrophe for those breaking through were isolated incidents. This is also an unpleasant warning. But I repeat — reality is more important to us than the picture, now and always,” the analyst concludes.