Expert Spoke about the Probability of Nuclear Strike in Ukraine: What Does It Have to Do with Lukashenko?
Putin's threats of a nuclear strike are primarily aimed at Western countries. This is another attempt of blackmail to force Europe and NATO to reduce their support for Ukraine in the war.
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Putin threatens nuclear weapons when things in Russia don’t go according to his plan. This is a sign of weakness and fear.
This opinion was expressed by military expert Oleksandr Musienko in his interview for TSN.ua.
"When Russia starts talking about nuclear weapons, it means they either struggle to achieve their goals, or are facing a failure. The first time when Putin started to talk about nuclear weapons was at the end of February, when they were unable to quickly seize Kyiv, and all attacks were repelled. He then summoned Russian Defense Minister Shoygu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Gerasimov to a meeting and ordered to bring the nuclear deterrent forces to full combat readiness," the expert said.
This was followed by statements from many Russian politicians, notably Medvedev, who wrote about a "doomsday" in the context of Crimea and other nonsense about the "hated West" that he was "going to destroy. Lavrov then blurted out that if the West continued to supply weapons to Ukraine, then Russia "might respond accordingly".
In fact, it already reaches the point of absurdity when the children of this so-called 'Kremlin elite' study in the United States, Britain and other countries or when they have businesses, assets and accounts there, and they threaten these countries with destruction," Musienko noted.
Now, the expert says, Putin has started threatening again in order to intimidate and blackmail the West.
"This is a sign of weakness, this is blackmail and pressure on the West. Everyone knows that he (Putin - ed.) has this weapon after all. He sometimes makes an impression of a not quite sane person with psychopathic ambitions - he is obsessed with the neo-imperial ideas. In the West, some people are afraid of this, so Putin is looking for "painful points" he can press in such a way," the expert explained.
At the same time, Musienko stressed that Ukraine was not afraid of the Russian dictator.
"No one from the Ukrainian leadership said: Oh, mommy, what's going to happen. We understand who is fighting against us, and we understand all the risks," Musienko empathized.
Moreover, the expert reminded that Lukashenko had also repeatedly talked about nuclear weapons. He even announced deployment of nuclear warheads in the territory of Belarus, because NATO plans were allegedly flying over Belarus to moderate a nuclear strike. At the same time, according to the expert, the only plans that the Soviet Union and then Russia had for a nuclear strike concerned Poland, Lithuania or the direction further to the north.
"Since 2006, Russia has conducted a series of military exercises (involving Belarus), where tactical nuclear strikes were simulated against Warsaw and Copenhagen. The scope of this drills was expanded, then reduced, but all the times the targets for nuclear strikes were located along this line from Kaliningrad to the northeast or west. The tactical nuclear warhead carriers are deployed in Kaliningrad Region anyway. Namely, these are Iskander missiles," Musienko said.
Now the expert doubts that the Russians have changed the targets of potential nuclear strikes, because Russia's plan is to threaten NATO countries and Europe with nuclear weapons in the first place. The Russian Federation has deployed its nuclear warheads right in the middle of Europe in Kaliningrad and continues to blackmail the world.
"Lukashenko is being set up in this situation. If any aircraft with a nuclear warhead is deployed on the territory of Belarus, as Lukashenko wants, the retaliatory strike by NATO or Europe may be not on the territory of Russia, but on the territory of Belarus, which apparently suits Putin, too. He won’t feel sorry for Lukashenko", the expert says.
So for now, the risk of nuclear strike in Ukraine is rather theory than reality.
"As for Ukraine, there are theoretical risks, but no practical preparations for a nuclear strike are observed. These (threats - ed.) are primarily aimed at the West, so that the West would get scared, afraid of a nuclear war and potentially reduce support for Ukraine, or talk to the Ukrainian leadership about compromises and a truce with Russia," the expert stressed.
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