If Huliaipole falls: Expert explains whether Zaporizhzhia faces risks

The operational situation in the Zaporizhzhia sector is showing worrying dynamics. Russian occupation forces are gradually increasing the intensity of hostilities, shifting their focus to areas that were previously considered relatively stable.

This was said by military analyst Denys Popovych on 24 Kanal.

The expert stresses that developments in recent days point to a shift in the priorities of Russia’s military command. The enemy has increased pressure simultaneously along several sections of the front, seeking to destabilise Ukraine’s defences. A key sign of preparations for more active operations is intensified artillery fire, allowing Russian forces to “scorch” territory ahead of an advance.

“The city is now being actively shelled, and that is a fact. The range allows the use of both barrel and rocket artillery,” Popovych said, commenting on the situation around frontline settlements.

He said enemy forces were already operating within range of heavy systems, posing significant risks to civilian and military infrastructure.

Risks posed by the potential loss of Huliaipole

Huliaipole remains a key defensive position slowing the advance of Russian forces deeper into the region. Popovych warns that if Ukraine’s Defence Forces are forced to withdraw from the city, the security situation across the entire region would worsen significantly.

“If Huliaipole falls, the enemy will advance from another direction, significantly complicating the situation in Zaporizhzhia region,” the analyst said.

The loss of control over the settlement could open the way for further Russian advances.

The expert says the most likely scenario, following a breakthrough, would see Russian forces push towards Orikhiv, a strategically important city whose capture would shorten the distance to Zaporizhzhia.

This axis of advance currently appears promising for the enemy, despite the fact that the Russian army is suffering significant losses and is tied down in heavy fighting on other fronts. Progress here could allow Russian forces to place Zaporizhzhia under tighter fire control, turning life in the regional capital into an even greater ordeal.