Is a ceasefire in Ukraine possible by April 20? A political scientist’s opinion
When Russia realizes its forces are depleted, it might suddenly propose a truce – "here and now."
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A temporary ceasefire in Ukraine by April 20 is theoretically possible, but it’s too early to talk about a lasting peace.
This assessment was provided by political scientist and international relations expert Maksym Nesvitaylov in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
According to the expert, at this moment, the U.S. – particularly Donald Trump – could initiate a temporary truce, but its stability and longevity remain highly questionable.
"Theoretically, the adoption of a temporary ceasefire regime is possible. That’s the only thing that’s feasible. A lasting peace by that time is definitely out of the question," Nesvitaylov believes.
In his view, Russia is currently trying to buy time to exhaust the offensive potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and make gains in specific areas, particularly in Sumy region or along the front line. However, when Russia realizes its forces are depleted, it might suddenly propose a truce – "here and now."
The political scientist also noted that even within a month, the Russian army would be able to fortify its occupied positions, build new defenses, and simultaneously conduct an information campaign against Ukraine. This involves pressuring Ukrainian society – regarding mobilization, Western aid, as well as calls to lift martial law and hold elections.
According to Nesvitaylov, the Kremlin is interested in elections amid internal instability, as this could lead to even greater division within Ukraine. "This is the Russians’ plan," he stated.
The expert emphasizes that without clear security or at least economic guarantees from Ukraine’s partners, particularly the U.S., there is no point in starting ceasefire negotiations. "What Russia gains is clear. But what we gain from these talks is completely unclear," he concluded.
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