Russia preparing massive winter strikes: Which cities and regions face greatest risk
Russia is expected to focus its winter strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv, concentrating attacks on specific regions, Stupak says.
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Russia to launch massive strikes on frontline infrastructure — Stupak
Russian occupation forces plan to intensify front-line offensives this winter while also targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
Military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak told Glavred about this.
He outlined which cities and regions face the greatest risk and how enemy strike tactics are likely to change.
Russia has enough missiles and will change tactics
Ivan Stupak dismissed claims that Russia is running out of missiles, citing data on strike intensity — 270 missiles were fired across Ukraine in October alone. The expert emphasizes that attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are expected to continue throughout the winter.
At the same time, he predicts a shift in Russian tactics: from “scattered” strikes across the country to concentrated attacks on specific regions.
“In previous years, Russia hit Ukraine like salting a soup — a little bit everywhere… now it will deliver strikes heavily in specific regions. If it hits Dnipro, it will be in force; Zaporizhzhia — likewise in force,” the expert explains.
Regions at highest risk
According to Stupak, Russia will primarily target border and frontline regions, where infrastructure is more vulnerable and even guided aerial bombs can reach.
The cities and regions considered particularly at risk are mainly frontline and border areas: Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson. Rear areas with weaker air defenses are also at risk — the expert specifically mentioned Chernihiv region.
Stupak also noted the possible extension of guided bombs range to 190 km, which, according to the Defence Intelligence, would significantly expand the potential strike zone.
Threat to Kyiv and particular danger to the rear
Ivan Stupak says Kyiv will undoubtedly remain a target, but its stronger air‑defence system reduces the effectiveness of strikes.
For this reason, the enemy will likely concentrate efforts on regions with weaker protection, such as Chernihiv. The aim of the attacks is to severely disrupt gas, heating and power supplies to create serious hardship for a specific region rather than for the country as a whole.
He added that bad weather — snow, wind and rain — complicates operations for both sides, in particular hindering enemy drones from taking to the air, but does not stop missile strikes.