Russian Roulette: why Putin attacks Kyiv, Odesa or Kryvyi Rih - an expert explains

Following a combined missile and drone attack on Odesa on the night of November 15, military expert Roman Svitan commented on the potential intentions of Putin's army in the near future.

"Most likely, the strikes on Odesa are connected to the so-called grain deal. There are many confidential matters that are not discussed publicly. Certain operations by our intelligence services provoke terrorist attacks from the occupiers as a response. It’s a form of terroristic blackmail - suggesting that if we target specific areas, they will strike, for instance, Odesa. They select targets like Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, or Kryvyi Rih. Recall the recent strike on one of the Russian airfields that protects the port in Novorossiysk. Every strike by the occupiers is calculated as part of terroristic blackmail," Svitan explained.

According to him, a massive attack on Ukraine with the onset of cold weather is not excluded, but the occupiers understand that most of the means of destruction will be shot down. "From a terrorist attack perspective, such a strike could happen at any moment. Putin’s army has long been ready for a strike like the one on August 26.

Therefore, people need to take care of their own safety, especially when Tu-95 bombers or Kinzhal carriers take to the air," the expert suggested. In Svitan’s opinion, there is also a possibility that Putin will refrain from attacking infrastructure in the near term because Donald Trump, the U.S. presidential election winner, will be making decisions by the end of January.

"Putin fears his wrath and likely won’t act rashly unless it’s related to some pressure or retaliation," the analyst stated. He added: "However, if Putin decides on a massive strike against Ukraine, the occupiers could use around 250 aerial weapons. This might include approximately 150 "Shahed" drones and about 100 missiles of various types - cruise and ballistic. They have enough missiles, but not enough carriers."

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