The threat of a massive attack on Ukraine on May 1-9: experts assessed the risks

Because of this, military experts in a comment for TSN.ua assessed the threat as far as it is possible, for example, on May 9 or in the first days of May.

According to analysts, the last such attack on Ukraine was on March 9, and Russia has accumulated a rough quantity of a hundred units.

"They can do this using naval or aviation carriers," says Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group. "But there is one catch. They are limited in the number of carriers - they do not use their maximum number. This is because they cannot perform combat tasks - they have exhausted their resource and are emergency. These are aircraft that were produced during the USSR. The resource of the power plant, nodes, airframe has already been exhausted. After each flight, repairs and maintenance were carried out. The Russians cannot count on a large-scale strike, because they are already limited in their capabilities.

According to Kovalenko, one should not forget that the Russians have an alternative to missiles.

"Using kamikaze drones is much cheaper, but the effect is almost the same. Russians are constantly attached to such dates as May 1, May 9. For Odesa, it could be May 2. By the way, it coincides with a two-week pause after today's drone strikes. We see that now they are focusing attention on Odesa," Kovalenko says.

In turn, military analyst Oleksiy Hetman also does not rule out the threat of a missile strike, but at the same time says that the Russians have no more than 15% of long-range missiles left in their strategic reserve.

"They cannot use all 100%, because they are forced to keep a certain number of missiles in the north, in the Far East. The country cannot get rid of the entire intact stockpile of missiles. The pause (which we are currently observing - ed.) may indicate just that. But there is information that they plan to carry out a massive attack in the autumn, before the cooling, when they accumulate a sufficient number of missiles," says Oleksiy Hetman.

In summary, the analyst suggests that the first decade of May may be relatively calm for the central regions of Ukraine from the point of view of the threat of a massive missile strike.

Read also:

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• The Russians attacked the Odesa region with kamikaze drones: there are hits (photo)

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