Twenty times more "Shaheds" attacking Ukraine: an expert outlines the scenario for winter strikes

Late on November 26, Putin's army attacked Ukraine with a record number of UAVs — 20 times more "Shaheds" than it was on November 26, last year. Almost 80 were shot down, 95 were lost locally without hits, but unfortunately, there were also hits. This was reported by the Ukrainian Air Force Command.

For comparison, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the night of November 26 last year, Russian occupiers launched only 9 drones — twenty times fewer.

According to military experts, the enemy has significantly increased drone production and will continue to scale it up to terrorize, including Kyiv region.

"Many well-known Ukrainian experts once claimed that Russia would never be able to produce a thousand drones per month. Then it turned out that the occupiers were attacking Ukraine with two thousand UAVs," said military expert and former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Seleznyov, in a comment to TSN.ua.

He added: "But to be fair, it should be said that last night not only "Shahed-131" and "Shahed-136" were launched at Ukraine. There were also "Parody" and "Gerbera," which are UAV-simulators, false drones without warheads. Their purpose is to overload our missile defense systems. 188 UAVs is a lot. The enemy is trying to suppress our air defense, and it is succeeding."

According to Seleznyov, while Kyiv and some other regions are well-protected, the blackout in Ternopil region indicates that the enemy has found a weak spot in our air defense system.

"We have a lot of work to do, and we should not underestimate the enemy, thinking that they are using the cheapest drones, made "from sticks and mud" and won’t cause us harm. These drones take our attention and resources," the expert explained.

Mass production where they can

Vladyslav Seleznyov assesses the scale of the current and future production of enemy drones as significant.

"They are scaling up production. They are using not only the special economic zone of Alabuga in Tatarstan. They have even converted some shopping malls into production workshops for fake drones. So, the growth and scaling of production is quite real. We need to strengthen air defense," the expert says.

He also adds: "I hope that the Minister of Defense of Ukraine will bring good news from South Korea — the air defense systems there are quite good. We need to increase the number of mobile fire groups. This depends on some of our military leaders. When personnel from these groups were moved to assault units, it was foolish. We're strengthening one area, but what about here? Mobile fire groups need to work, and their numbers should grow. The more opportunities we have to destroy enemy UAVs, the better. Moreover, the activities of mobile fire groups are much cheaper than using modern missile systems."

According to Seleznyov, the presence of a large number of mobile fire groups and a high percentage of destroyed drones will not make the enemy stop these attacks. It will only help protect Ukrainian cities.

"But destroying enemy industrial capabilities is the way out. Remember, after the strike at the dormitory in the Alabuga special economic zone, they "tucked tails" a bit. After the destruction of a "Shahed" storage facility somewhere in Kuban, the number of attacks decreased. So we need to attack their production. For this, we need missiles capable of covering distances over 300 km."

Kyiv and the region in the crosshairs

Regarding attacks on the capital region, Vladyslav Seleznyov says: "Combat operations are usually directed at objects that are crucial in the defense system. We’re talking about command points, communication and control points, infrastructure facilities. Why Kyiv? Here is the Office of the President, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Defense, other agencies, and diplomatic missions of world countries."

According to the expert, if the air defense system over Kyiv is weakened, the enemy hopes to create an atmosphere of despair, chaos, and pressure.

"Putin has not abandoned his ultimatums. He demands Ukraine’s capitulation. To support these demands with appropriate arguments, he is pressuring Kyiv. Drone and missile attacks will continue. There are no illusions. The enemy will seek any opportunity to cause as much damage as possible. Moreover, we are vulnerable now. The heating season, the load on our energy grid is colossal. In Putin's opinion, Ukraine will be more inclined to make decisions if we sit in the dark. So, the enemy will keep terrorizing us when we are most vulnerable," Seleznyov said.

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