How long can Russia keep fighting? Fesenko’s surprising answer

Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort depends heavily on economic factors, particularly global energy markets, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told TSN.ua.

Rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, which pushed oil prices higher, have given Russia additional financial resources to continue the war, he said.

Meanwhile, falling oil prices could further strain Russia’s economy, the expert says.

«If the conflict involving Iran ends and oil prices fall again, the financial problems already emerging in Russia will intensify, leaving Moscow with fewer resources for the war,» Fesenko said.

He added that no global political leader could accurately predict when the war would end.

«No one, neither Dmytro Kuleba, nor Volodymyr Zelenskyy, nor Donald Trump, nor Vladimir Putin, knows when the war will end or how long it will last,» he said.

Wars evolve unpredictably and depend on multiple factors, he added.

«There’s no telling what 2027–2028 will bring. This war of attrition is taking its toll on both us and Russia, regardless of the form it takes,» the analyst said.

At the same time, he predicts that while negotiations will continue, a swift end to the war is unlikely.

«In the coming months, likely through the end of the year, we will see peace talks, but no actual peace agreement to end the war. Theoretically, something unexpected could happen, but if current trends continue, there will be no peace deal at least until autumn, and most likely not even by the end of the year,» the expert explained.