Ukraine war after Putin’s visit to China: What could change tomorrow
The war in Ukraine could shift after a «window of opportunity» emerges, an analyst said, naming a likely timeframe.
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The war in Ukraine could undergo changes following Vladimir Putin's visit to China. / © TSN
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko shared his insights with TSN.ua on how and whether the war in Ukraine will actually change following the recent visit of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to China.
«Putin continues the war in Ukraine even without Xi Jinping. The purpose of the visit was entirely different—it was primarily a demonstration to Trump and the Americans that the strategic alliance between China and Russia remains intact. This is the main objective for Beijing, a demonstration that China currently defines the global balance of power,» Fesenko said.
The analyst added: «Certainly, China does not dominate the world yet, and I think it won’t dominate for a long time to come. Right now, it is demonstrating that others come to them to negotiate. Putin’s visit following Trump’s visit was important to show that the Americans will not succeed in tearing Russia away from China. For Putin, there was a different, economic goal, because Russia’s economic situation is poor, and it wants to revive these ties with China. There was a specific objective—to agree on the second phase of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. It appears there are still no agreements. China recognizes its strong position and is pushing its own terms—it wants to buy Russian gas at discounted prices, matching Russia’s domestic rates.»
Ukraine war after Putin’s visit to PRC: What could change
Fesenko believes that an escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine does not serve China’s interests.
«But China is not showing any particular desire to stop this war either. Why would they? To help the Americans? They will not help Trump, and that is the main reason. Right now, this is Trump’s interest—he wants to end this war. It is a demonstration of his influence. Why hand gifts to Trump? If the war in Ukraine ends, he will begin negotiating a grand bargain with Putin. For China, this is a risk. It does not need a rapprochement between Russia and the US,» the expert predicted.
However, in his view, China also wants to avoid an escalation that could fracture the world.
«Deepening such a split is not in China’s interest. It dislikes any major war because it creates problems for global trade. But I don’t think it is beneficial for China to prolong the war either. Rather, they are indifferent; it is not a matter of principle,» the political analyst said.
He added: «For them, the main thing is to prevent an expansion of the scale. This specific war has weakened Russia, making it dependent on China. This aligns with Beijing’s interests. To some extent, this war has weakened the US and Europe. Against this backdrop, China’s influence has grown. Trading drones and components is also profitable for them. However, a victory for either side does not benefit the PRC. A Ukrainian victory would look like a success for the US and the West. But China does not need a Russian victory either, as that would fuel Moscow’s ambitions.»
Fesenko is convinced that the Chinese do not want Russia to become a third dominant global power.
«They want to maintain Russia’s dependence. Therefore, in the long term, the Chinese would be satisfied with a stalemate—a scenario where nobody wins. They proposed this in an abstract form in 2023. I believe that in the near future, they will not intervene in either the war or the negotiation process. But if the war drags on or if the U.S. withdraws from the negotiation process, I do not rule out that China might join talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. However, as long as Trump and his administration play the leading role in negotiations, the Chinese will not interfere,» he said.
Will China aid Russia in war against Ukraine?
The political analyst answered this question as follows: «Perhaps not fully, for instance, by supplying weapons. Currently, China does not supply weapons to Russia, providing only dual-use goods. When could it step up its support for Russia? If Russia begins to lose the war, if a risk of its defeat emerges. China is not interested in a Russian defeat. A scenario exists where the war could last a long time. The most significant factor that will drive both Russia and Ukraine toward negotiations is exhaustion and internal problems. Currently, they are not critical.»
War in Ukraine: What exactly and who can stop it
At the same time, Fesenko says: «If our strikes against Russia become more powerful, if we manage to almost completely freeze the front and halt the Russian offensive, then, for example, by autumn, Russia will realize that the summer offensive yielded no results and the war has reached a deadlock. Then there will be greater chances for real negotiations. I believe the next „window of opportunity“ for a real, rather than formal, resumption of the negotiation process will be in the autumn. That is if we succeed in intensifying strikes against Russia and almost completely halting Russian offensive operations.»
According to him, the situation will depend on two people—the Ukrainian soldier and Putin.
«Part of the Russian elite seems to understand the need to exit the war. But is Putin ready? There are doubts about that. As for us—if we manage to maintain the initiative, it provides a certain chance,» the expert said.