War in Iran reshapes Russia’s position and affects Ukraine: Expert explains risks
Expert Ihor Semivolos explains why the Kremlin fears the collapse of the regime in Iran and how the blocking of the North–South corridor is hitting the Russian economy.
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An expert explains why the war in Iran is not in Russia’s interests
The war in Iran is not only about oil prices or Israel’s security. It is a direct blow to the Kremlin’s strategic interests.
This was stated by Ihor Semivolos, executive director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, in a comment to TSN.ua.
«North–South» corridor locked: Russia’s logistical setback
One of the most painful consequences of the war for Moscow has been the disruption of a strategic logistics chain. The North–South corridor, which Russia had been developing for years as an alternative to European routes to reach the Indian Ocean, has effectively stopped functioning.
«This war has dealt a very serious blow to Russia’s logistical capabilities. The North–South corridor, which existed for them to bypass Europe directly to the Indian Ocean and to ports in the Persian Gulf, is now closed. And this is a significant blow not only to Russia but also to Central Asia, ” the expert says.
War in Iran: Moscow’s expectations
According to the expert, the Kremlin views the possibility of a change of power in Tehran very painfully, as Iran is a key military ally of Russia. However, Russian analysts are betting on the resilience of the Iranian regime.
«They are coming to the conclusion that the regime will not fall, and this already changes the Russian approach and rhetoric. Russians are again starting attempts to discuss matters with the Americans and to look for ways to find their own benefit in this dialogue, ” Semivolos said.
Iran–Russia alliance
Despite calls for peace, Russia continues deep cooperation with Iran in the military sphere. This involves not only arms supplies but also real-time data exchange.
«Russia confirms its allied commitments, and the Iranians confirm that there is an exchange of intelligence data between them regarding the military operation, ” Ihor Semivolos said.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
The disruption of Russian logistics and the diversion of Russian resources to support Iran are undoubtedly positive factors for Ukraine.
However, attempts by Vladimir Putin to «sell» his help to Donald Trump in resolving the Iranian crisis in exchange for concessions on Ukraine remain the main risk.