Will the war end this week? An expert names the main scenario

After U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the coming week would be decisive in negotiations to end the war, and that Ukraine and Russia, according to him, are closer to a peace deal than at any time over the past three years, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko commented on the situation for TSN.ua.

«The issue here isn’t another ceasefire declared by Putin. We know the value of such ceasefires. It’s all propaganda stunts and nothing more. But now they are part of the game with Trump. The latter is indeed showing activity regarding a ceasefire; there are negotiations with us and with the Russians. This should be taken seriously,» the political expert asserted.

He continued: «This week is decisive in the sense that it will become clear whether the Russians are ready to start real negotiations to cease fire and more broadly. Not just in words, but in action. Judging by Marco Rubio’s assessments, he sees a chance for this, sees a window of opportunity (for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia under U.S. mediation). Both sides have supposedly sent signals of readiness for talks. We are certainly ready, but the Russians are sending contradictory signals.»

When asked what these signals are, Volodymyr Fesenko answered: «On one hand, there are statements that they are ready without preconditions, but on the other hand, we saw that in an interview with an American channel, Lavrov put forward a whole series of demands. They contradict Trump’s so-called peace plan. Not only regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Demands were made about annexed territories, not only Crimea. Much remains unclear, even though Rubio says the week will be decisive. I think that in the coming days, the Americans will try to negotiate the start of talks — about the date, format, and agenda. But whether these intentions can be realized is still an open question. It’s a double situation.»

They want both peace and war

At the same time, the political expert draws attention to the following: «The Russians are playing a specific negotiation game. There is a so-called good negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, who acts from the position of „negotiations with Trump above all,“ and a bad negotiator, Lavrov, for whom „war with Ukraine and Ukraine’s capitulation are above all.“

According to Fesenko, this is done absolutely deliberately.

«This is Kremlin’s tactic. Putin is playing with both hands. He supposedly supports negotiations while at the same time putting forward ultimatum-like demands through other people,» Fesenko said.

He explains: «In the Kremlin, there is a „party“ of war and a „party“ of peace. We can only infer this indirectly. The final decision regarding the war will rest with Putin. For now, he is balancing between these two positions — he is negotiating with the Americans but also continuing the war. I think he will draw conclusions based on the situation, depending on whether he feels that Trump is still „on the hook.“

In Fesenko’s opinion, Trump is already dissatisfied and realizes that Putin is playing games and does not really want to agree on a ceasefire.

«This may push Putin toward some agreements. But even if it becomes possible to reach an agreement on a ceasefire, the risks of the war resuming will remain,» the expert suggests.

Will the shelling of Ukraine continue?

Volodymyr Fesenko answers: «The risks are there. We see now that Trump is irritated. He believes that he is being deceived — talking about negotiations while actively shelling Ukraine. I don’t rule out that for the sake of playing the negotiation game with Trump, Putin might reduce the intensity of strikes. They might suspend missile strikes, but drone attacks will likely continue. This option is entirely possible. It’s a tactic. If it becomes important for Putin now to play at negotiations with Trump and to show some peacemaking gestures, there may be new ceasefires and some limitations on missile strikes.»

Maybe Putin is preparing public opinion

In conclusion, Fesenko says that the new ceasefire declared by Putin might be preparation for a possible ceasefire.

«To get public opinion used to the idea that the war might end, even if only in the form of a ceasefire. An attempt to prepare public opinion for such a scenario. And whether this scenario materializes will depend on the circumstances,» the expert notes.