When Trump could “push” Putin toward ceasefire: Political analyst predicts

U.S. President Donald Trump has a chance to push Russia toward genuine ceasefire talks, even though Vladimir Putin currently shows no intention of stopping the war.

This was stated by political analyst Oleksii Buryachenko, executive director of the International Association of Small Communities, in an interview with 24 Kanal.

Buryachenko outlined two possible timeframes for the start of such processes.

1. Before Christmas

The analyst argues that there is still a chance to launch negotiations before Catholic Christmas. This period, he suggested, could be the moment to “pressure” Putin.

Signs of Russian activity may include the moves of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and possible informal contacts at the G20 summit in South Africa following changes in Russia’s delegation.

“I am convinced there remain chances to begin a real negotiation process,” Buryachenko said.

2. In 2026

However, he notes that the first stage is complicated by U.S. politics going into “holiday mode” by mid‑December. Moreover, Trump’s sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil will only take effect from November 21, meaning Putin may not yet feel sufficient pressure to accept Trump’s terms.

“The closer we get to Christmas, the more realistic the second horizon of political decisions becomes — oriented toward 2026. Whether it will be late winter or spring is hard to say. Much will depend on the battlefield situation,” Buryachenko explained.

He added that any nuclear escalation or even large‑scale military exercises by Russia would only accelerate the process, consolidating Western support for Ukraine and narrowing Moscow’s options.