New offensive from Belarus? Zelenskyy’s office reveals potential frontline scenarios and risks
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office, assessed the likelihood of a new offensive from Belarusian territory and how Ukraine is responding to the threat.
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Mykhailo Podolyak / © Associated Press
The risk of Belarus’s territory being used again to pressure Ukraine remains, but a scenario of a full-scale offensive from the northern direction currently appears unlikely, Presidential Office advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said.
He stated that while Minsk may continue to be used by Russia as a tool for political and military pressure, Ukraine already factors these threats into its defense strategy.
«Lukashenko is, undoubtedly, an accomplice to unprovoked military aggression,» Podolyak stressed, commenting on the Belarusian regime’s role in the war against Ukraine.
He said that Belarus is not an independent geopolitical player and is virtually completely dependent on Russia.
«Belarus is not an independent entity even at the regional level. It is a puppet state that is completely dependent on Russia,» the Presidential Office advisor said.
For what purpose Russia might use the Belarusian direction
Kyiv believes that Russia may attempt to use the Belarusian direction to stretch Ukrainian defenses. However, a large-scale offensive requires a significant grouping of troops, which is currently not present in Belarus.
«A full-scale attack from the northern direction requires a concentration of 150,000 to 200,000 personnel,» Podolyak explained.
According to Ukrainian estimates, the size of the Belarusian army is approximately 35,000 to 60,000 troops, which significantly limits the potential for a sharp escalation.
The Presidential Office emphasizes that Ukrainian society in the north of the country is protected, and any provocations from the territory of Belarus will receive an immediate response.
«If even a single provocation occurs, there will be an immediate response. And an immediate response — you understand what kind,» the advisor to the head of the Presidential Office stated.
Kyiv also notes that Minsk’s potential actions are viewed exclusively within the context of Russian military strategy. Meanwhile, analysts do not rule out attempts at informational or political pressure from Belarus without entering the war directly.
Recent statements by Ukrainian officials indicate that the northern direction remains under constant monitoring, and defense measures in the border regions are being reinforced.