Why aerostats will not replace Starlink for occupiers over Ukraine, expert explains

Russian communication balloons are unlikely to replace satellite internet such as Starlink. They are unlikely to become widespread because of technical difficulties and weather conditions. Key obstacles for Russia include specific wind patterns at high altitude and the high cost of equipment, which becomes vulnerable to Ukrainian air defense at lower levels.

This was stated by Defense Express Editor-in-Chief Oleh Katkov to KYIV24.

Altitude and wind challenges

According to Katkov, aerostat relay developments are underway not only in Russia but also in NATO countries and the United Kingdom. The main advantage of stratospheric systems, above 20 km, is that they remain out of range of most conventional surface-to-air missile systems.

He says geography and meteorology will be decisive if such systems are used against Ukraine. Winds at stratospheric altitude generally blow eastward, complicating efforts to keep aerostats over required combat areas.

Attempts to deploy relays at lower altitudes, around 10–15 km, make them vulnerable to Ukrainian Armed Forces strike capabilities. Because communications equipment is expensive, such launches become economically unjustified.

«Launching something at lower altitudes, roughly up to 10–15 km — they already do that, but such balloons can be countered. The equipment installed there is quite costly, expensive, and effectively becomes disposable. As for the stratosphere — well, that is unlikely, ” Oleh Katkov explained.

Deployment prospects

The expert stressed that the effectiveness of stratospheric objects over the European part of Russia for communications purposes is possible. However, their use directly over Ukraine would be situational only.

«Getting winds to blow specifically toward Ukraine will be situational. Nature itself will work against such deployment over Ukraine, ” the Defense Express editor-in-chief said.