World may shift away from costly air defense missiles: What could replace them

Many governments may in future scale back purchases of costly Patriot missiles and shift toward unmanned technologies that are significantly cheaper.

This was stated by Ivan Tymochko, Head of the Council of Reservists of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, speaking on Ukrainian Radio.

According to him, the war in Ukraine demonstrates that drones are increasingly dominant in the air because they are far cheaper than missiles.

«Many countries will abandon such large-scale purchases of missiles for Patriot and move to cheaper but effective countermeasures. In the air, missiles no longer have the advantage as a strike tool — drones do, at least in terms of numbers, ” Tymochko said.

He added that using expensive missiles to destroy cheap drones is economically inefficient, prompting countries to accelerate development of counter-drone systems.

Japan and Israel show interest in Ukrainian technologies

Tymochko also highlighted interest in Ukrainian defense technologies from Japan and Israel.

Japan traditionally searches for promising defense technologies, purchasing them or becoming a key customer while seeking partial production licences, he said.

He noted that Japan already participates in the production of Patriot missiles, some of which are assembled at Japanese plants.

«The Japanese understand that after statements by China and its territorial claims, they must prepare more seriously. That is why they are looking at Ukrainian experience and technologies, ” Tymochko said.

He added that Israel follows a similar logic, showing interest in cheaper and more scalable counter-drone solutions.

Demand for expensive missiles may decline

Tymochko said the spread of effective drone technologies may gradually reduce demand for expensive missiles.

In his view, this could force manufacturers to rethink their supply strategies.

«For a long time missile producers were effectively monopolists. They could determine delivery queues and even influence prices to some extent. But now the situation is changing, ” he said.

The expert suggested that missile prices may fall in the future as producers compete with emerging technologies while trying to maintain production volumes.