Russia's new offensive: where will the occupiers direct the main blow - an expert

A new offensive by the Russian occupiers towards Kharkiv and Sumy regions is unlikely, as it would extend the front line and complicate the enemy's logistics.

This opinion was expressed by military expert Pavlo Narozhny on the national telethon.

He reminded that the front has already stretched to approximately 1,500 kilometers – from Kherson to Kupiansk.

"If the enemy advances towards Kharkiv region, the length of the front will become approximately 1,800-1,850 kilometers. This will greatly complicate their logistics... The second question: one brigade covers 50 kilometers. So, for 400 kilometers, they need about a dozen brigades. That's 50,000, at least, who will be stationed on this section of the front, not including the strike group, which will directly storm. Where can they get 150,000 now - I don't see such a quantity anywhere, such reserves", Narozhny pointed out.

The expert considers Donetsk region to be the most likely direction for the main strike, where the Russians will try to push the Ukrainian army away from the occupied Donetsk beyond the reservoir area.

"If this happens, it will simplify their logistics, it will push the Armed Forces of Ukraine further from the sea, it will "secure" this entire area near Mariupol, near Berdiansk..And in the area of Robotyne then (in such a pessimistic scenario), our army will find itself in a deep "wedge", and then our flank will be under threat", Pavlo Narozhny explained.

However, he noted that it would be difficult for the occupiers to advance in the area of Robotyne.

"There are fortifications that we have occupied. Fortifications are always built for defense in 360 degrees. So, where we have taken positions, we can hold the defense, making it very difficult for them to advance", the expert noted.
Another probable direction for the Russian occupiers' offensive, according to Narozhny, is Kupiansk-Lyman, where they may also try to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond the river and improve their logistics.

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