A military expert named the main priority in the war in Ukraine for 2024

The current season of hostilities in Ukraine is far from over, but it is already clear that the war unleashed by Putin last year in February will continue next year.

The publication of the analytical center close to NATO, The Atlantic Council, published an article by Ukrainian military expert Mykola Beleskov about the possible course of the Russian-Ukrainian war next year.

According to him, the plans of the Russians for the next six months or a year will be indicated by whether the Kremlin will announce another large-scale mobilization.

"If so, it will mean that the Russians are planning another offensive campaign, in particular to enter the administrative borders of Ukrainian regions, which they have already prescribed in their legislation as part of Russia. If no large-scale mobilization is announced, it will mean that they have decided to wage a defensive war, holding on to the temporarily occupied lands," he wrote.

Beleskov predicts that the Western military-industrial complex will reach such a level of production of projectiles that Ukraine will not experience a shortage of them at the end of next year - at the beginning of 2025. On the other hand, Russia is unlikely to face a real "shell hunger" during the year.

Furthermore, according to Beleskov, in the absence of decisive breakthrough capabilities on either side, the war will continue to be a war of attrition against the enemy's resources.

"This means, among other things, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will more actively target Russian bases on the temporarily occupied territories, including in Crimea and even within Russia itself. The number and range of attacks are likely to increase, and the acquisition of F-16s can potentially enhance this process. While there are certain political risks for Ukraine, they also exist in a front-line stagnation scenario, which gives Kyiv reasons to strike the enemy's rear more frequently," he added.

"Despite the lack of any significant changes on the front lines this year, attempts to portray the war as a stalemate are misleading. We are currently witnessing a period of intense attrition, but it may well be followed by a new round of maneuver warfare. The key task for commanders on both sides is currently the defense of their own forces and causing significant losses to the enemy, while preparing to exploit windows of opportunity, as Ukraine successfully did in September 2022," the expert noted.

"Russia's reputation as a strong global power has been severely undermined in Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces find themselves in a very difficult position 18 months after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ATACMS missiles on the enemy's airfields in temporarily occupied Luhansk and Berdiansk have significantly humiliated the Kremlin. Now, Middle Eastern countries see Russia as a "waning state." In Syria, Putin is already losing ground as he had to relocate part of his forces from there to Ukraine," wrote retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp.

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