A very tough winter awaits us on the front: Onistrat outlines possible scenarios

The upcoming winter will be very difficult for all Ukrainians, especially for the Ukrainian fighters on the frontlines.

This opinion was expressed by Andriy Onistrat, one of the founders of the "Shershni Dovbusha" drone unit, a former banker, and now a serviceman, in an interview with the head of the Victory Drones project, Maria Berlinska.

He also outlined possible scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might unfold.

According to Onistrat, the worst-case scenario would be an insufficient number of Ukrainian forces and continued territorial losses. The key point on the battlefield would be Pokrovsk.

"As experience shows, Pokrovsk can be held easily for six months. By April, we can hold Pokrovsk, which is still about 40 kilometers from the border with Dnipropetrovsk region. There are also Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. With the current speed of territorial losses, we could be stuck on the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions for at least another year and a half. It will be harder to hold Kursk region because they will be reinforcing that area with more troops," he said, outlining the worst-case scenario.

Another bad scenario, Onistrat noted, would be the cessation of support from the United States, forcing Europe to "wake up" and contribute more. However, even in this case, he said, Ukraine could continue losing the four regions that Putin claims for years to come.
Onistrat also named a positive scenario — the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump, who could "activate his levers" and do what the Democrats have not done to support Ukraine.

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