Belarusian opposition hands alarming report to Ukraine: What Lukashenko is up to

Pavel Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, has handed a detailed report to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine regarding Belarus’s preparations for war.

The document claims that Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is effectively transforming Belarus into a military staging ground for the Russian Federation.

The authors of the report outlined a series of signs that, in their view, indicate the Lukashenko regime is preparing to directly enter the military conflict or to allow Belarusian territory to be used for new strikes.

Specifically, the report notes changes to military legislation. Following a so-called referendum, Belarus ceased to be a neutral and non-nuclear state. The new military doctrine adopted in 2024 allows for «preemptive strikes» in the event of an «imminent threat» and provides for the possibility of deploying the Belarusian army abroad.

The National Anti-Crisis Management separately highlights a large-scale deployment of forces. According to the report, the number of contract soldiers in Belarus has increased 1.5 times since 2022, while the mobilization reserve is estimated at 289,000 people. The Southern Operational Command is being established along the Ukrainian border, and total troop numbers could rise to over 80,000.

The document also notes that the Belarusian regime is adopting Russian practices: introducing SMS draft notices, creating a «people’s militia,» and allowing prisoners to be recruited into the military.

Another section of the report focuses on shifting the economy to a wartime footing. Over the past four years, Belarus’s defense budget spending has increased fivefold, and the Belarusian defense industry is fully integrated with Russia’s. According to the National Anti-Crisis Management, over 4,000 new units of military equipment were put into service in 2024 alone.

The report also mentions the deployment of Russian troops, tactical nuclear weapons, and the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus. Additionally, Belarusian servicemen are being trained by Wagner PMC instructors.

The Anti-Crisis Management also points to the construction of defensive lines along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. According to the authors, bridges and airfields are being modernized to handle heavy Russian equipment, and mandatory military training is being introduced in schools. Tens of thousands of children are passing through military-patriotic camps.

A separate section of the report covers the mobilization of medical and civilian infrastructure. The Ministry of Health of Belarus has already approved guidelines for sorting the wounded under wartime conditions. In Minsk, 5,000 bomb shelters have been inspected, warning systems are regularly tested, and body armor is being purchased at the district level for the needs of the «militia.»

Furthermore, according to the Anti-Crisis Management, Belarus is stockpiling strategic resources. Mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled to 30 days of storage. The Ministry of Defense has expanded the list of civilian vehicles that can be mobilized during martial law. According to a Council of Ministers resolution dated May 15, 2026, corporate transport can be forcibly organized into military convoys.

The authors of the report note that in 2026, the Lukashenko regime continues its practice of continuous, large-scale military exercises. The National Anti-Crisis Management believes these drills may be used to covertly verify mobilization lists and maintain tension within society.