Can Ukraine’s air defense shoot down over 700 drones? Expert assesses how many Patriot missiles are needed

The United States produces 50 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) missiles per month for Patriot air defense systems. However, even if Ukraine’s air defense system received all these missiles, it would not be able to intercept 100% of enemy targets, especially when the Russian army launches over 700 drones simultaneously, as occurred on the night of July 9.

This opinion was expressed by military expert and editor-in-chief of Defense Express, Oleh Katkov, in an interview with Espreso.

Countering massive drone attacks

According to Oleh Katkov, of the 728 drones launched by Russia against Ukraine on the night of July 9, 50–60% were «Shaheds,» with the rest being decoy drones. According to the Defence Intelligence information, the enemy produces about 100 «Shaheds» per day and can accumulate them for massive attacks.

«No air defense system in the world ever achieves 100% interception; it’s simply an unattainable benchmark,» the expert emphasized.

Even Ukraine’s air defense, which is the most robust in Europe (compared to Israel’s, which demonstrates 90–95% interception), still allows some targets to get through.

For example, out of 300 «Shaheds», up to 30 could penetrate, carrying up to 3 tons of explosives. Therefore, it’s critical to shoot down «Shaheds» using cost-effective and efficient means, such as mobile fire groups, anti-aircraft artillery, machine gun armaments, and promising anti-aircraft drones, which Ukraine can produce serially and in large quantities.

Production of Patriot missiles in the U.S. and their significance

Oleh Katkov also commented on the U.S. capacity to produce missiles for Patriot systems, which are the only systems capable of intercepting Russian «Kinzhal» missiles.

«The U.S. produces 50 MSE missiles per month,» he said, adding that the standard expenditure for a ballistic target is two missiles.

The expert believes that the limited production of MSE missiles was one of the reasons for the suspension of military aid to Ukraine. He cited the example of an attack on an airbase in Qatar on June 24, during which the U.S. fired up to 56 MSE missiles, exceeding monthly production. According to Lockheed Martin’s plan, 600 MSE missiles will be produced in 2025, and 650–700 in 2026, compared to 450 in 2023, indicating an increase in production rates but also reflecting significant global demand.