Five scenarios of war: the great battle for Donbas, another campaign against Kyiv and nuclear weapons
After a defeat in Donbas, Putin is left with two options: declaring war against Ukraine and announcing a general mobilisation, or taking to nuclear weapons.
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Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. This was initially announced by the director of the CIA William Burns, and later confirmed by Zelensky in an interview for CNN.
The insane war criminal may be facing pressure due a lack of success in the conquest of Ukraine and defeats in the face of the Ukrainian armed forces, in particular, the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the cruiser “Moskva”, by two Ukrainian “Neptun” missiles. Russian Telegram-channels are overflowing with urges to destroy Ukraine in revenge. Although, whilst weeping over the wrecked metal, the Russian propogandists remain silent about the deaths of the 400 Russian crew aboard the warship.
Here lies the entire ideology of Putin’s regime, which places at nothing the lives of its own people. The FSB is asking the Russian government to increase the finances for coffins and tombstones for Russian soldiers by 17%. The hidden mobilisation has failed. The majority of Russians are content to watch the war against Ukraine from their television screens, but not to die on the battlefield.
Thus, Putin is left with only two options – either declaring war against Ukraine in order to announce a general mobilisation, or to use tactical nuclear weapons. So far it seems that the Kremlin is leaning towards the first option. Although Putin’s initial plans have not changed. He needs the entirety of Ukraine. The survival of his criminal regime is at stake. If he is defeated, he will have lost everything, including his own life.
TSN.ua has analysed five possible scenarios by which Russia’s war against Ukraine can progress.
Declaration of war
How can Putin achieve his plans for a mobilisation? There is only one option – by stoking the fires of hatred towards Ukrainians in Russia to such an extent, that Russians themselves would want to go to war. And Putin know how to achieve this – with the help of terrorist actions against his own population. His ascent to the presidential seat began with a series of explosions in three Russian cities, which were the beginning of the second war in Chechnya.
Putin’s methods have not changed. The reconnaissance headquarters of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is warning: Russia is planning a series of terrorist actions, including detonations in civilian apartments, hospitals and schools on their own territory, and even rocket and air strikes against Belgorod or Crimea, in order to increase the degree of hatred against Ukrainians in Russia.
The press-secretary of Putin, Dmytro Peskov, has already effectively confirmed this: “If Ukraine continues provocations involving attacks against Russian cities, Russia will be forced to declare war”. Furthermore, Moscow’s threats are not limited only to us. The USA and other countries which are supplying Ukraine with arms, have received notifications from the Russian ministry of foreign affairs about “unforeseen consequences for the regional and international security”, if they continue to support Ukraine.
The battle for Donbas
All of this is happening out of desperation, as – according to the military expert Oleg Zhdanov – of the people who responded to the summons following the Russian military reserves system, which Russia intended to use for its hidden mobilisation, less that 1% agreed to sign the contract with the Russian military on the condition of active participation in action.
In just under two months of war against Ukraine, Russia has lost nearly 25% of its army’s military capabilities. Of the 200 thousand personnel gathered by Putin for the invasion, only 30-40% remain in fighting condition.
They are being relocated to Donbas, reinforced by troops from the Far East, the Belgorod oblast, and the Central military district.
According to the advisor to the head of the Office of the president of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, the battle for Donbas will be immense. The Minister of Defence of Latvia has already compared it to “the second Stalingrad”. Hence, there is a great need for heavy artillery, anti-aircraft systems and warplanes. These weapons are also needed to lift the siege of Mariupol, to liberate Kherson and Nova Kahovka.
At the same time, according to the Deputy Director for international questions at the Army Research, Conversion, and Disarmament Center Mykhaylo Samus, the great battle for the Donbas may not ever begin, since the Russians have already greatly delayed its beginning. They were preparing a classic Second-World-War operation there, with a great quantity of aircraft, artillery, MLRS, infantry, to create a great wall of fire to break down the defences of the Joint Forces Operation, before beginning their advance.
“I think they will not be successful. The Ukrainians are very successfully preventing Russian attempts to concentrate any forces – their columns, staging grounds and communications are immediately being destroyed”, - explains the expert.
Nuclear weapons
The councillor of Austria Karl Nehammer, who flew to meet with Putin the preceding week, in an interview to the American news channel NBC mentioned a very interesting thing:
“Existing in his own world, I believe that he [Putin – red.] knows what is going on in Ukraine. But he believes that he will win the war.”
But at what cost? In just under two months of full-scale war, the entire world has seen that Putin has no compassion even for his own troops. He will send as many Russians to their deaths as is necessary for what he considers a favourable outcome. In particular, the decisive battle in Donbas is about to begin.
“If they will lose it as well, then, it is possible to say they would have used everything in their arsenal with the exception of weapons of mass destruction. Today, I would compare Putin to Hitler in 1945, when he was expecting by the day an atomic bomb from his scientists, which he would use and win the war”, - tells Oleg Zhdanov to TSN.ua.
Where will Putin attempt to use nuclear weapons in case of a defeat in Donbas? According to Mykhaylo Samus, there are great uranium ore deposits in the Dnipro-Kryvyi Rih- Kropyvnytska region, which may be served under the sauce of nonsense about the destruction of Ukraine’s capabilities to create nuclear weapons.
Firstly, they believe this may lead to victory.
Secondly, a nuclear weapon attack is intended to cause a great blow to morale, especially against the West, so that they lift the white flag in the face of a possible end to civilization.
At the same time, according to Oleksiy Arestovych, if Putin does take this step, the USA and NATO will immediately intervene, appealing to China to do the same. And the “intelligent” Russian soldiers who will be ordered to advance after the nuclear attack will simply die from radiation sickness. And their deaths will be much faster than those of the soldiers who dug trenches in the Rydiy forest in the Chornobyl exclusion zone.
Land corridor
Effectively, the Russians already possess it.
Firstly, they control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, which has been integrated into “Rosatom”.
Secondly, they have supplied Crimea with water, having captured the southern Tavriya
Thirdly, the Azov sea is becoming an interior lake of the Russian Federation.
There is a reason the Derzhduma hears requests to reinstate the Tavriya guberniya. They realise that the initial plan with a conquest of Kyiv in 3-4 days has failed – their blitzkrieg fell flat. The idea of creating a “soviet” Ukraine with a capital in Kharkhiv too remains in the realm of fantasy – the Russians have been unable to take the city.
In Mariupol too, where Putin continues to send hundreds of his soldiers to their deaths, the Russians are unable to make progress.
Although they very much want to do so, as – according to the deputy mayor of the city, the invaders have decided to hold their 9th May victory parade in Mariupol. If the plan to capture the city fails, the Russians have a backup plan – to call for a referendum for the formation of “KhPR”. The invaders are already printing ballots in Kherson and Nova Kahovka.
Although the central propaganda of the Kremlin remains silent on the matter. Why? Possibly because they have not yet received the new topics and scripts. Although the real problem lies in the fact that neither the formation of “KhPR” nor a parade in Mariupol are in agreement with Putin’s initial claims as to the cause of the war – the “defence” of Donbass.
Therefore, if Putin cannot show any successes in the approaching battle for Donbas, Russia may use their current territorial conquests and unite them into a single administrative unit – some nominal “New-Russia” – without integration into the Russian federation.
Why? In order to push it back into Ukraine as was done with the so called “DPR/LPR” back in their time, using the politics of “Minsk-2”. In other words, after their defeat at Donbas, Russia will attempt to pull Ukraine into negotiations.
Capture of Kyiv
The Western intelligence warns: although today, Russia is concentrating its forces in Donbas and the south, Putin’s main goal has not changed. He wishes to capture Ukraine including Kyiv. Therefore, bombardments of the capital will continue.
The Ministry of Defence urges citizens who wish to celebrate Easter at home to avoid rushing to return to Kyiv and its outskirts. “The events of the upcoming couple of weeks will be indicative. We’re holding the line”, - stated the deputy minister of defence Hanna Malyar.
In addition, the head of the Kyiv oblast military administration Oleksandr Pavlyuk points out the serious danger of undetonated Russian ammunition, minefields and traps left behind by the Russian troops. Sappers are carrying out a very great and painstaking task. Therefore it is very important to wait for the official announcement that the capital is safe.
Although, it is likely that residents of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, who endured the bloody onslaught of the Russians are most concerned in the question of whether the Russians will return. According to the ex-ambassador of the USA in Ukraine Steven Pifer, the Russian troops intended to capture Kyiv quickly in February, but were unable to do so.
“The Russians have completed the withdrawal of their troops from the Kyiv region and their repositioning for the Donbas theatre. Putin may have given up on the idea of capturing Kyiv, but this will be difficult for the Russians to accept”, - states the diplomat.
The general secretary of NATO Jens Stoltenberg presumes that this war may last months or even years. However, the American news channel CNN quotes the words of the secretary of state of the USA Antony Blinken, who told his European allies that Russia’s war against Ukraine will last until the end of 2022.
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