Russia amasses 100,000 troops: Expert points to key objective of offensive

The Donetsk region remains the primary priority of Russia’s offensive. The Kremlin considers control of the region a key factor in the war against Ukraine.

This was stated by Dmytro Zhmailo, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, in an interview with OBOZ.UA.

The expert says that Russia has currently amassed around 100,000 troops, but this does not necessarily indicate an inevitable strategic breakthrough. According to his assessment, part of these reserves is being used to replenish current frontline losses.

«The Donetsk region will be the top priority of the offensive. Because of it, Russia continues combat operations. If it fails to capture and control it, very serious consequences could occur within Russia itself, linked to an effective defeat in the war, ” Zhmailo said.

He added that the Kupiansk sector could become active, but mainly as a diversion. The Kremlin aims to stretch Ukrainian forces to weaken defenses on key parts of the front.

Zhmailo also highlighted that the creation of new divisions is part of Russia’s military reform, begun in 2025. This includes staffing units with recruits, foreign fighters, and forced contracts.

According to the expert, for a large-scale offensive, the Russian army would need to achieve several tactical objectives, including encircling the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka area and advancing to the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk hub. However, these plans seem unrealistic given Russia’s economic problems.

He says inflation in Russia is above 20%, the budget faces a large deficit, and military pay is being delayed. As a result, the Kremlin is covertly mobilizing military retirees, law enforcement personnel, convicts, and people with criminal backgrounds.

«Spring offensive actions will probably not be much different from previous loudly announced offensives. Russia will continue to operate in waves and try to exhaust Ukrainian defenses, ” Zhmailo concluded.