Russia may attack substations: an expert predicts when to expect new strikes

Russia is highly likely to continue shelling Ukraine until the end of the year, focusing primarily on energy infrastructure, especially substations. However, its capacity for such operations is expected to decrease after the New Year.

Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center, said this in a comment to 24 Kanal.

According to him, Russia will actively attack Ukraine’s energy facilities from next week until mid-December or early January. However, attacks involving 10–15 missiles are unlikely to cause significant damage due to Ukraine’s effective air defense systems.

"One alarming trend is that during massive attacks, Russian forces repeatedly target substations that distribute power from nuclear power plants. It's critical to bolster air defense systems around these substations as they are vital to our infrastructure," Omelchenko emphasized.

But Russia cannot disable all substations at once.  Firstly, due to systemic engineering protections, air defense measures, and reserve equipment. Secondly, their strikes are aimed not only at substations, but also at nuclear power plants, because substations directly depend on their operation. This can actually be considered attempts to attack nuclear facilities.

"The Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants are located just a few hundred kilometers from the EU border. An accident at these facilities would affect neighboring countries. This calls for a concerted effort - diplomatic, political, military, and involving international organizations like the IAEA - to prevent strikes on nuclear energy facilities disguised as attacks on substations," Omelchenko explained.

The enemy's capacity for strikes will decrease after the New Year. The main reason is the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. According to the expert, this is a significant event that can affect the military-political situation around the war.

"Striking Ukrainian energy facilities before Trump's inauguration would be a direct insult to him. At the same time, I think Russia will aim to establish some form of relationship with Trump, seeking its own advantage," Omelchenko speculated.

If Ukraine endures potential strikes over the next two months, Russia may lose its ability to carry out large-scale attacks, with the onset of spring further complicating its operations.

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