"This War May Last Pretty Long": Ukrainian Army General Described the Most Worst-Case Scenario of Events

According to Malomuzh, this scenario of the war in Ukraine is pretty unlikely, although this prospect of dragged out war may be extremely detrimental for Ukrainian economy and national security.

Mykola Malomuzh, Ukrainian Army General and former Chief of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (2005-2010), described the worst-case scenario in his interview for Glavred.

According to him, this worst-case scenario may be implemented, only if the western partners supply the weapons to Ukraine “in units, but not in hundreds, as we need right now".

"If we don’t have sufficient quantity of weapon, the war in Ukraine may last for a pretty long time, since the supply schedule may be based on the lead time of six months or even more", he explained.

"In this case we won’t be able to launch an offensive operation in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine, where Russia has deployed powerful military alignments. Russia will likely conquer Donetsk Region and attempt to advance towards Kharkiv, where it will be eventually stopped, and we will have another area of hostilities with varying success. After that, the conflict will be frozen”, Malomuzh said.   

He emphasized that Ukrainian military leadership had no intention to drag on the war in the countries.

"Freezing of conflict along with the new positions will result in long-term dragging on of this war, as it happened in Donbas eight years ago. We will likely have some line of control and some peaceful arrangements. Then there will be new long-term negotiations, where will attempt to regained the seized territories through peace talks, international guarantees and diplomatic pressure… This way leads to nowhere.

This is the worst-case scenario, which may become a heavy burden for Ukraine. This time Russia will control not only the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, but a huge territory, which will be detrimental for our strategic, economic, technological and other forms of restoration. No powerful investor will actively inflow cash into Ukraine restoration, before the war is over. What we call the “Marshall Plan” will never be implemented. I talked to the leaders of powerful corporations in the United States, Canada, Europe, UAE, Saudi Arabia and other country: they are willing to help us and invest up to 1 trillion 500 billion dollars in the restoration of Ukraine, but only if the peace prevails, we push away the enemy and ensure proper security for business operation and implementation of all projects funded by the European Union, the World Bank", he added. 

The Army General emphasized that Ukraine’s top-priority task was to convince the western partner to stick to the strategy leading to Ukraine’ victory in the war and optimistic scenario.

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