When will Russia’s offensive halt? Expert predicts frontline stagnation and war slowdown

Russian statements suggesting the war could end if Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donetsk are part of an information campaign rather than a realistic development.

This view was expressed by military expert and Ukrainian Navy reserve colonel Vladyslav Selezniov, on Ukrainian Radio.

According to him, such rhetoric actually points to Russia's struggles on the front lines.

"If everything were going well for them, they would be silently proving their military ambitions and victories through the force of arms. However, when things on the battlefield aren't going so great, they pivot back to one of their key tools of influence—information," Selezniov noted.

He stresses that claims of a rapid takeover of the Donetsk region do not align with reality.

"The Russians could potentially seize Donetsk, but it would cost them at least 300,000 lives. Such an operation could drag on for eighteen months to two years. A two-month timeline is out of the question," he stated.

The expert predicts a shift in the conflict's dynamics in the coming months:

"Towards the beginning of autumn, we will see stagnation on the battlefield as the Russian occupiers' offensive potential becomes exhausted."

According to Vladyslav Selezniov, the increased activity of Russian forces on certain fronts is linked to attempts to exploit favorable weather conditions.

The most intense fighting is currently reported near Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and along the Huliaipole direction. Meanwhile, relative stabilization is being observed on other sections of the front.

Destroying Russian logistics

The expert highlighted the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in dismantling Russian supply lines. In March alone, Ukrainian forces destroyed over 6,000 Russian transport vehicles, severely hampering the enemy’s offensive capabilities.

Heavy fighting continues near Rodynske and Hryshyne, where Russian troops are attempting to expand their control zone to create conditions for advances toward Pavlohrad and Kostiantynivka. On the Lyman front, the key objective remains holding the strategic Izyum-Slovyansk highway, which allows Ukrainian forces to maneuver resources effectively.

Selezniov also pointed to the tangible impact of strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

"The enemy has lost approximately 45% of its oil and petroleum product export capacity," he said.

According to the analyst, the resulting drop in budget revenue directly undermines Russia's long-term ability to sustain the war.