Will Russia break through Ukraine’s northern border during exercises in Belarus? — Zhorin’s opinion

New joint Russian-Belarusian exercises, «Zapad-2025» («West-2025»), are scheduled to take place in Belarus in September 2025.

Deputy Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Zhorin, suggests that Russia might have a plan to launch an offensive under the cover of these exercises.

In his view, this is the very reason the exercises are being organized.

«It all depends on their forces and resources, as well as our ability to resist the enemy on yet another front, ” Zhorin wrote on Telegram.

In a comment to Times of Ukraine, he addressed whether there is a real chance that Russian forces could attempt to breach Ukraine’s northern border during the exercises.

«The threat exists. Whether it will happen — honestly, I’m convinced that even the Russians themselves haven’t yet decided whether they’ll make that attempt or not. Most likely, they’ll make that decision closer to the time, depending again on the balance of forces and resources on both sides, ” explained the deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade.

According to him, the main goal of the exercises for now is to force Ukraine to keep troops stationed along the northern border, preventing their redeployment to other fronts.

«However, if they see that we don’t have enough forces there at the time, I think they may decide to attempt a breakthrough in that direction. That would most likely be through Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, or Rivne regions, ” Zhorin stated.

According to him, Russia still has an old plan, dating back to 2022, which envisioned a rapid advance to Ukraine’s key logistical routes in order to sever the main supply lines between western and eastern Ukraine.