Threat to Baltic states: Could Putin test NATO’s readiness?

After Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest oil hub on the Baltic coast, Russian propaganda accused the Baltic states of opening the airspace for the attack on Ust-Luga port. This gave the Kremlin another reason to show its aggressive intentions toward Lithuania, Latvia, and especially Estonia, where the city of Narva is vulnerable to Russian hybrid «special operations.»

This was reported in a TSN.Tyzhden segment.

Military analyst Oleksandr Musienko believes that while Trump is stuck with his war in Iran and Europe has not yet strengthened itself, Putin has a timely chance to see how NATO’s Article 5 works.

He pointed out that despite European NATO members increasing spending, the U.S. president reproaches them for not supporting his operation in Iran and threatens them with consequences. NATO’s unity is constantly shaky.

«It’s not about them conducting an operation now and 500,000 Russian troops going to the Baltics. Limited operations are intended to generate discussions in NATO and create contradictions. That is Putin’s goal, ” Musienko explained.

One of Putin’s scenarios is to capture the narrowest and weakest point — the Suwałki Corridor. This would cut Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia off from the rest of Europe. The threat is very real because Russian and Belarusian troops rehearsed this scenario during the Zapad-2025 exercises.

Hybrid threat to Narva

However, Russia is unlikely to act directly. In Narva, Estonia, bordering Russia’s Ivangorod, Putin could at any moment play out a Donbas-2014 scenario.

The city has 85% Russian-speaking population, and a third of residents still hold Russian passports. Most previously traveled, and now, after 2022, they cross the bridge to relatives. Kremlin influence crosses borders easily here.

Recently, several social media groups appeared calling to separate the region from Estonia and create a Narva People’s Republic. A flag, anthem, and a series of memes were already created, including a schedule for a militia assault on Narva — between breakfast and lunch.

Local deputy Denis Larchenko rejects comparisons to Donbas, saying such a scenario is impossible and media noise about potential hybrid attacks only harms the region’s economy.

«The city needs investment and development. When the information space is full of such content, attracting investment becomes much harder, ” he explained.

Tourism, one of Narva’s main economic sectors, suffers. In 2023, many Western European tourists visited to see the Russian border. According to Denis Larchenko, now there are fewer people willing to look at the barrel of a museum tank aimed at Narva from the Russian side.

Who fans «separatism»

Who stands behind the currently small groups of the «Narva People’s Republic»? The Estonian organization «Propastop» easily identifies the pattern.

«We have monitored the channels of key pro-Kremlin activists for years and know them by name. This separatist narrative did not originate from the views of Estonia’s Russian-speaking community, but was imposed from outside, ” the organization said.

Despite this, NATO troop numbers have increased in Narva and near Suwałki. The Alliance expects this to restrain Russia.

However, the main threat is not tanks, which are visible from a distance, but hybrid methods without a formal start of war.

It is not without reason that Narva deputy Denis said law enforcement is preparing for «Victory Day» in Ivangorod, Russia, and Europe Day in Narva. The city is particularly divided on these days. Some residents display the portrait of war criminal No.1. Others participate in a Russian concert on the embankment. Clashes occur frequently.

Who knows whether Putin this time will decide to come to the aid of «his own»?