War in Ukraine escalates to a new level: Expert urges to look for «axes»

The relentless attacks on Ukraine, including the capital, over the past three days may indicate a significant increase in Russia’s drone production capacity. Combined with the fact that the Russian army has not altered its «special military operation» objectives and continues its assaults, these attacks could pose an even greater threat to Ukraine in the near future.

Military expert and former SSU officer Ivan Stupak shared his insights on this issue and possible solutions in a commentary for TSN.ua.

«There is an assumption that the Russian army has ramped up production. Last year, Russia was producing 90 attack drones per day. By February 2025, reports suggested 120 drones per day. Now, Russia has launched over 500 drones in just two days. That’s as many as were used throughout the entire month of March last year, ” Stupak says.

He emphasizes, «I note that the enemy can launch so many drones simultaneously. I assume they are using mobile launch platforms to bombard Ukraine with drones. We’ll see how it develops, but right now, it’s alarming. It’s possible the Russian army stockpiled drones, but I believe this also reflects their production capacity.»

According to Stupak, Russia is unlikely to launch massive missile strikes on Ukraine in the near future, but this pause is tied to the need for maintenance of their bomber aircraft.

«Aviation experts say that after each launch, aircraft require maintenance. However, localized missile strikes are possible — targeting Odesa, Dnipro, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. This pause might last about a month, ” the expert noted.

He adds, «But I assume they’ll keep hitting with „Shaheds“ regularly. We need to address this. I believe our mobile fire groups can’t handle such a large number of drones. We need to double or triple them. We need some primitive, cheap, homegrown systems to shoot them down — call them „axes“. We can’t produce something highly advanced right now.»

Why the attacks on Kyiv have intensified

Before the three-day attack on Kyiv, Russian propagandists, citing their officials, threatened Ukraine with an «act of retribution» following attacks by unidentified drones on Russian cities.

At the same time, Stupak points out that Kremlin propagandists claimed the drones targeted alleged military objects in Kyiv and its suburbs. In reality, «Shahed» drone strikes hit residential and non-residential buildings that have no connection to military targets.

According to Stupak’s assumptions, Russian attacks on both the capital and other parts of Ukraine will likely continue in the near future.