«Not on track for a peace deal»: Expert issues alarming forecast for Ukraine

The ongoing negotiations over the war in Ukraine mark just the start of a long-term frozen conflict.

Dmytro Dovhopolyi, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Americanist, and former UN official (1987–2019), shared this view on Espreso TV.

The expert is convinced that the current talks serve one purpose only — to pause the conflict for an indefinite period.

«I don’t believe we are heading toward a peace deal. What’s happening now looks like an overture to a Korean-style ceasefire. We’ll go through negotiations, pretend to reach agreements, and eventually agree to a ceasefire along some line, which will hold for a long time — until, as we expect, we know who ends up dying, ” Dmytro Dovhopolyi stated.

Unnoticed shake-up and a person without diplomatic experience

Dovhopolyi points out that the appearance of a new figure in the U.S. negotiation team — Dan Driscoll — is linked to a shift in priorities at the White House.

«There was a shake-up, actually unnoticed by our analytical community… Stephen Miller has zero interest in Ukraine; his focus is Venezuela, ” the Americanist explained, noting that Miller, by taking national security responsibilities from Rubio, redirected attention to other matters, which brought Driscoll into the process.

The expert harshly criticized the special envoy’s appointment and emphasized his inexperience.

«We have someone with no diplomatic experience at all, given just one week to prepare. And he came to Kyiv not very prepared, ” the historian said.

Assessment of Ukraine’s position and pressure from Trump

Dovhopolyi cited the Washington Post while discussing Driscoll’s visits to Kyiv, expressing doubt about Ukraine’s military stance.

«The U.S. Armed Forces love Ukraine and stand behind Ukraine, but it is the honest U.S. military assessment that Ukraine is in a very bad position and now is the best time for peace, ” the expert conveyed Driscoll’s words.

He added that, according to media reports, the war remains in a stalemate, with Russia paying an «absolutely abnormal price, ” having lost 95,000 troops over 500 square kilometers since the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. The expert believes that U.S. pressure on Ukraine is currently driven by Donald Trump’s domestic issues, as he is seeking a quick success amid his own scandals.

«We Need a Pause»

In conclusion, Dmytro Dovhopolyi offered a recommendation for the Ukrainian negotiation team, inspired by theater:

«My recommendation comes from theater: the greater the actor, the longer the pause… We need a pause, we need to look again at who is on our negotiation team, and we need to work more closely with the Europeans. This is my threefold opinion, ” he said.